101
FXUS65 KRIW 221101
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
401 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR FOR MANY ARRIVE FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW, ONE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SATURDAY. HOWEVER, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
FOR THE MOST PART THINGS ARE QUIET AT THE HUMBLE RIVERTON
WEATHER ABODE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING DRY, QUIET AND FOR
THE MOST PART SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TONIGHT. WE HAVE TWO
QUESTIONS TONIGHT THAT WE ARE PONDERING TONIGHT FOR THE FORECAST
AS WE LISTEN TO CLASSIC ROCK TONIGHT (TWO GEN XERS WORKING
TONIGHT). THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL GET OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS, AND THE SECOND, MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION, IS HOW COLD
WILL IT GET AS WE HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL PEOPLE BE STONE COLD, COLD AS ICE OR SO
COLD (I THREW IN BREAKING BENJAMIN FOR THE MILLENNIALS). WE
WILL DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND ADDRESS THESE INDIVIDUALLY.
WE WILL START WITH SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT THE
NEXT COLD FRONT (THE THIRD WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK) WILL ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AND, I'M GOING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD, WITH THE ARCTIC ORIGINS OF THE AIR, HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. AS A RESULT, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL REALM, THE EUROPEAN BRINGS A FAIRLY BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT QPF (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THEN WE TRANSITION INTO THE
PROBABILISTIC REALM OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE OF THE ANAFRONTAL VARIETY, FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT. AND WITH
THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, THE HEAVIEST SNOW (A RELATIVE
TERM WITH THIS SYSTEM) WOULD FALL IN THE FAVORED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. THIS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER EAST AS WELL, GENERALLY AROUND
CASPER AND FROM THERMOPOLIS AND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN. EVEN HERE, THE CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IS ONLY 1 OUT OF 2. WHEN WE BUMP THE TOTALS TO
ADVISORY LEVEL (3 INCHES), THE ONLY POSSIBLE AREA IS AROUND
CASPER, WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF RIGHT REAR QUADRANT JET
ENERGY TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. EVEN HERE, THE CHANCE IS ONLY 1
OUT OF 5 AT THE MOST. THIS, PLUS THE FACT THE COLD AIR WILL OOZE
IN RATHER THEN MOVE IN QUICKLY, WIND SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG.
SO, NO ADVISORIES HERE. ELSEWHERE, THE CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW
IS LESS THAN 1 OUT OF 10. THIS ROUND OF SNOW SHOULD END FRIDAY
NIGHT. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY, THE FOURTH AND LAST FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN DRIER AND
WILL BRING EVEN LESS SNOW, WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED AND
ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE COLD AIR, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON.
ONE DISCLAIMER HERE, THIS WILL NOT BE A RECORD BREAKING COLD
OUTBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST,
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES, WITH WYOMING SEEING MORE
OF A GLANCING BLOW. THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY DOWN TO AROUND MINUS 21, AS OPPOSED THE MINUS 30S
FURTHER EAST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN A LONG TIME FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. AS OF NOW, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MANY
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN BELOW ZERO EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH MOST
AREAS HAVING AT LEAST 4 OUT OF 5 CHANCE. THERE ARE STILL A
COUPLE OF WILD CARDS THOUGH. ONE IS IF THE CLOUDS DON'T CLEAR
QUICKLY ENOUGH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP JUST A BIT. THE OTHER IS
SNOW COVER. AREAS FURTHER WEST MAY NOT HAVE ANY SNOW COVER,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP BEING IN NATRONA COUNTY, WHERE SNOW COVER SHOULD BE THE
DEEPEST, AIDING IN COOLING. HERE, THERE IS A 2 OUT OF 5 CHANCE
OF LOWS LOWER THAN MINUS 10. AS FOR COLD HIGHLIGHTS, DON'T THINK
THEY ARE NEEDED NOW SINCE MINUS 20 IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE WIND
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM. SATURDAY LOOKS COLD AS WELL.
THE COLD SHOULD NOT LAST THOUGH, AS THE COLD AIR MOVES TO THE EAST
AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY. A SLOW MODERATION
BEGINS ON SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD REALLY BE FELT ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND MIXES OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST
GETS MORE MUDDY AFTER THAT, BUT NO ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED AS WE HAD
TOWARD THE END OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO POUR IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ENTER THE REGION STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER 00Z, WITH MAIN IMPACTS AT
KWRL/KCOD AND KCPR, WHERE OVERNIGHT CIGS LOWER TO AT LEAST 5000
FEET, POSSIBLY LOWER. PRECIP CHANCES AT KCOD/KWRL REMAIN LOW,
WITH BETTER CHANCES AFTER 12Z/23, WHILE KCPR WILL SEE BETTER
CHANCES STARTING AROUND 09Z/23. MOST SITES CONTINUE WITH MODEST
NORTH WINDS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 15KTS LIMITED TO KCOD THIS
AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...STRAUB/WITTMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page