001
FXUS65 KRIW 191049
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
349 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AFTER SUNRISE.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
DROPPING TO AROUND OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- FRIDAY BRINGS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING
(20-30%) AND WESTERN WYOMING (30-50%).
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES, THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN
SNOW CHANCES TO WESTERN WYOMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WE ARE NOW ON THE BACK HALF OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS (FINALLY) BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WYOMING. RADAR, SATELLITE, AND WEBCAM IMAGERY
SHOW SNOW IS NOW MOSTLY FOCUSED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. OBSERVED WINDS CURRENTLY SHOW A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES;
THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE-FAVORED CASPER AREA.
SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING THOUGH IT WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN WYOMING, THOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINOR.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND OR
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS IN EITHER DIRECTION. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW FOR
MOST, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
MORE IF CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER. SOUTHERN WYOMING WILL
SEE JUST ENOUGH OF A CLOUD INCREASE FROM A SYSTEM PASSING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SWEETWATER COUNTY FRIDAY, THOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN COLORADO. STILL, A NORTHERN SHIFT IN THE PASSING SYSTEM COULD
LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG THE I- 80 CORRIDOR FRIDAY.
SEPARATELY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY, FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AS RIDGING RETURNS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS IT STANDS NOW,
THIS WOULD BE FOCUSED ON WESTERN WYOMING BEGINNING IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LREF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING, POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT. CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST IS LOWER.
REGARDLESS, AFTER A QUICK REPRIEVE THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE FAVORS A
RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
SNOW HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KJAC
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL. LOW VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED STILL WITH LOW CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING TO THE MID LEVELS BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
WIND SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT AT KRKS WHERE GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AS WIND DECOUPLES. ALL OTHER TAF SITES
EXPECTED TO BE 10KTS OR LESS. LOW STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE AROUND
KJAC WITH THE RECENT SNOW BUT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH VICINITY AT
THIS TIME.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 16Z THIS
MORNING. KCOD AND KWRL WILL SEE THE SNOW END FIRST, WITH SNOW
ENDING LAST IN VICINITY OF KCPR. WIND HAS DECREASED AT MOST TAF
SITES TODAY AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 11 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
IFR, WITH KCPR THE LAST AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME,.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ003>010-017>019-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ011-
020.
DISCUSSION...MYERS
AVIATION...HATTINGS
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