714
FXUS65 KRIW 200431
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
931 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG FOR JACKSON HOLE AND CASPER
AREA (10-20%).
- A NEARBY DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS LOOK LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE STATE.
- WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOWFALL TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING
TO REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE, ESPECIALLY WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER
EXISTS. AS A RESULT OF THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW, MANY LOCATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY,
WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN. ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL TAKE
A HIT DUE TO THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF CENTRAL WY FROM RIVERTON
TO CASPER AND CASPER TO BUFFALO HAVING AROUND A 30-60% OF
SEEING LOWS BELOW NEGATIVE FIVE. THERMOPOLIS TO WORLAND IS
ANOTHER AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE THAT HAS SIMILAR CHANCES OF
SEEING LOWS NEAR NEGATIVE FIVE. COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS, SUCH AS JACKSON HOLE, STAR VALLEY, AND
THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
40-70% FOR THESE LOCATIONS SEEING LOW TEMPERATURES OF NEGATIVE
TEN OR COLDER. THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW MAY ALSO LED TO INVERSIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL WY WHICH COULD HINDER WARMING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, AS INSTEAD OF
SEEING THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S FRIDAY,
INVERSIONS MAY LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL MOSTLY HOLDS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO BE
SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN WY FOR FRIDAY. RECENT TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF QUIETER
AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
WE ARE NOW ON THE BACK HALF OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS (FINALLY) BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WYOMING. RADAR, SATELLITE, AND WEBCAM IMAGERY
SHOW SNOW IS NOW MOSTLY FOCUSED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. OBSERVED WINDS CURRENTLY SHOW A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES;
THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE-FAVORED CASPER AREA.
SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING THOUGH IT WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN WYOMING, THOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINOR.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND OR
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS IN EITHER DIRECTION. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW FOR
MOST, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE
MORE IF CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER. SOUTHERN WYOMING WILL
SEE JUST ENOUGH OF A CLOUD INCREASE FROM A SYSTEM PASSING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND SWEETWATER COUNTY FRIDAY, THOUGH
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN COLORADO. STILL, A NORTHERN SHIFT IN THE PASSING SYSTEM COULD
LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ALONG THE I- 80 CORRIDOR FRIDAY.
SEPARATELY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY, FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AS RIDGING RETURNS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS IT STANDS NOW,
THIS WOULD BE FOCUSED ON WESTERN WYOMING BEGINNING IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. LREF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
WESTERN WYOMING, POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT. CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST IS LOWER.
REGARDLESS, AFTER A QUICK REPRIEVE THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE FAVORS A
RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
LND/RIW CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THE RECENT SNOWFALL AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. ALL OTHER TAF
SITES REMAIN VFR. FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AT JAC BETWEEN
07-14Z BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE (10-20%). THERE IS A HINT OF
POSSIBLE FOG AROUND CPR BUT EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE (<10%) NOT
EVEN DEPICTED IN THE TAF BUT LEADING UP TO SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR RKS CARRYING VCSH BETWEEN 14-19Z
WITH NO IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
LOCATIONS BUT RKS SEEING AN UPTICK CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM UP TO 30KTS BY 23Z. RKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER 02Z
AS THE DRAINAGE NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES PRESENT FOR RIW AFTER
03Z. INDICATIONS ARE CURRENTLY TO BE UP TO 18KTS REMAINING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE
THE CHANCE FOR RKS, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYERS
AVIATION...LOWE
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