905
FXUS65 KRIW 200753
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1253 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY.
- MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH
SNOW FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND STRONG WIND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
OLD MAN WINTER FINALLY RETURNED TO WYOMING AFTER TAKING A RATHER
LONG VACATION. THE VACATION WAS SO LONG EAST OF THE DIVIDE WE
THOUGHT HE ABANDONED HIS PROPERTY. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER, A
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING HAS SNOW COVER. THERE IS ONE
THING TO SHOW HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THOUGH. WHEN I RETURNED FROM MY
SHIFT LAST NIGHT I WAS SHOVELING MY SIDEWALK AND THE SNOW WAS STILL
MELTING AT THE BOTTOM, DESPITE IT BEING AROUND ZERO DEGREES. IT
REALLY SHOWS HOW ABNORMALLY WARM IT HAS BEEN AND THE AMOUNT OF
WARMTH THE GROUND HAD.
AS FOR TODAY, WE HAVE A FEW MINOR CONCERNS. FOR ONE, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS, ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LITTLE TO NONE. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS A LOW THAT WILL PASS OVER COLORADO AND MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WYOMING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER AND ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN WYOMING WOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE IMPACTS ARE SLIM TO NONE.
THERE IS BASICALLY AN ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF AN INCH EVEN THERE.
ANOTHER QUESTION IS TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WE
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FOR TODAY WITH THE INCREASED
ALBEDO. IF IT DOES GET WARMER, MOST PEOPLE WOULD EITHER BE
HAPPY OR WOULD NOT CARE. THE OTHER IS WHETHER OR NOT THE FOG
MONSTER CAN CLIMB OUT OF HIS LAIR TO FEAST ON THE FRESH MOISTURE
AND BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY. FOR NOW WE KEPT THE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT BUT NOTHING RECORD BREAKING.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND CONTROLS THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. WE SHOULD THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND.
FIRST IN THE AREAS THAT MIX OUT EASILY, LIKE CASPER AND BUFFALO
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IN THE BASINS, A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SNOW CAN MELT OFF. WE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THAT, THE STRONGER LATE
FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HAVE MELTED OFF ENOUGH OF THE SNOW TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE INVERSIONS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY.
WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE STATE. AS EXPECTED, GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST. IT MORE THAN
LIKELY WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT THIS WINTER. THAT MEANS ZONAL FLOW AND AN LARGELY UPSLOPE /
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH IT THOUGH, AND
THIS IS POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP AS A GOOD STORM FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIND EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
FIRST IN THE PREFRONTAL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, LIKE AROUND
CASPER. THE WINDIER DAY MAY END UP BRING WEDNESDAY THOUGH. A
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROPPING SOUTHWARD WITH AN 125 KNOT
JET MOVING OVER WYOMING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD
BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS, LIKE BUFFALO, THE BIG HORN BASIN,
WIND RIVER BASIN AND SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE JET ENERGY LOOKS TO
BE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS, BUT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE
LESS THAN A 1 OUT 3 CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING RAIN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BUT LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS LARGELY
DRY, MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY AS FLAT RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
LND/RIW CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND
THE RECENT SNOWFALL AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. ALL OTHER TAF
SITES REMAIN VFR. FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AT JAC BETWEEN
07-14Z BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE (10-20%). THERE IS A HINT OF
POSSIBLE FOG AROUND CPR BUT EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE (<10%) NOT
EVEN DEPICTED IN THE TAF BUT LEADING UP TO SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL HAVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR RKS CARRYING VCSH BETWEEN 14-19Z
WITH NO IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
LOCATIONS BUT RKS SEEING AN UPTICK CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM UP TO 30KTS BY 23Z. RKS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER 02Z
AS THE DRAINAGE NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES PRESENT FOR RIW AFTER
03Z. INDICATIONS ARE CURRENTLY TO BE UP TO 18KTS REMAINING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE
THE CHANCE FOR RKS, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LOWE
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