802
FXUS65 KRIW 202232
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE ENVELOPED THE COWBOY STATE WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
- A NEARBY SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THE PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN. THIS
AREA OF FOG IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
IMPROVE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED AS
A RESULT OF THIS, SO HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.
CURRENT HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
ACROSS THE STATE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A
NEARBY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE LOW RANGING FROM
20-40% AND MAINLY OVER WESTERN WY AS WELL AS PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN WY. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
HAS SEEN LITTLE CHANGE. WARM AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
WESTERN WY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
OLD MAN WINTER FINALLY RETURNED TO WYOMING AFTER TAKING A
RATHER LONG VACATION. THE VACATION WAS SO LONG EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WE THOUGHT HE ABANDONED HIS PROPERTY. FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS WINTER, A MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING HAS SNOW
COVER. THERE IS ONE THING TO SHOW HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN THOUGH.
WHEN I RETURNED FROM MY SHIFT LAST NIGHT I WAS SHOVELING MY
SIDEWALK AND THE SNOW WAS STILL MELTING AT THE BOTTOM, DESPITE
IT BEING AROUND ZERO DEGREES. IT REALLY SHOWS HOW ABNORMALLY
WARM IT HAS BEEN AND THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH THE GROUND HAD.
AS FOR TODAY, WE HAVE A FEW MINOR CONCERNS. FOR ONE, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. THIS WAVE
HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS, ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS A LOW THAT WILL PASS OVER COLORADO AND MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WYOMING. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER AND ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR IN WYOMING WOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHERE IMPACTS ARE SLIM TO NONE.
THERE IS BASICALLY AN ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF AN INCH EVEN THERE.
ANOTHER QUESTION IS TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WE
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FOR TODAY WITH THE INCREASED
ALBEDO. IF IT DOES GET WARMER, MOST PEOPLE WOULD EITHER BE HAPPY
OR WOULD NOT CARE. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE FOG
MONSTER CAN CLIMB OUT OF HIS LAIR TO FEAST ON THE FRESH
MOISTURE AND BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY. FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BUT NOTHING RECORD BREAKING.
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND CONTROLS THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. WE SHOULD THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND.
FIRST IN THE AREAS THAT MIX OUT EASILY, LIKE CASPER AND BUFFALO
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IN THE BASINS, A LOT DEPENDS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE SNOW CAN MELT OFF. WE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THAT, THE STRONGER LATE
FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HAVE MELTED OFF ENOUGH OF THE SNOW TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE INVERSIONS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY.
WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE STATE. AS EXPECTED, GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST. IT MORE THAN
LIKELY WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE WEATHER SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT THIS WINTER. THAT MEANS ZONAL FLOW AND A LARGELY UPSLOPE /
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH IT THOUGH, AND
THIS IS POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP AS A GOOD STORM FOR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIND EVENT FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
FIRST IN THE PREFRONTAL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, LIKE AROUND
CASPER. THE WINDIER DAY MAY END UP BEING WEDNESDAY THOUGH. A
SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH AN 125 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER WYOMING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS WOULD BE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS, LIKE BUFFALO, THE BIGHORN BASIN, WIND
RIVER BASIN AND SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE JET ENERGY LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS, BUT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE
LESS THAN A 1 OUT OF 3 CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING RAIN AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AS WELL EAST OF THE DIVIDE,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOKS LARGELY DRY, MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY AS FLAT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REMAINING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLND/KRIW THIS MORNING HAS BURNED
OFF, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER BREEZES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PRECLUDE MOST FOG TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS BLOWING OVER THE
TETONS WILL BRING SOME THICKER MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECKS ON THE NORTHERN
APPROACH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING BEFORE THIS DECREASES.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH ONLY
CONTINUING HIGH CIRRUS. GUSTY WINDS 15 TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
KRKS AND KCPR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...STRAUB
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