308
FXUS65 KRIW 210719
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1219 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TODAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND
NOT AS COLD TODAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN WESTERN WYOMING AND STRONG TO HIGH WIND EAST
OF THE DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
THINGS ARE LARGELY QUIET ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THIS
MORNING. WE STILL HAVE A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN
BIGHORN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES BUT NOTHING ELSE. AND MOST OF THESE
SHOULD END BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. WE
DID LOWER THEM A BIT BUT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY. THE
TREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOR WARMING AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST. ON THE BALANCE, BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AS THE SNOW
FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK MELTS OFF.
WIND WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BEGIN IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATIONS LIKE CASPER SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE ABSOLUTE EARLIEST ANY SHOWERS
WOULD DEVELOP IS LATER MONDAY NIGHT BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
PRECIPITATION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.
AND THIS BRINGS US TO THE DISCUSSION OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKER, THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
FOR THE MOST PART, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
THIS WINTER WITH ZONAL FLOW. THAT MEANS UPSLOPE WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES A GREATER THAN 9 IN 10
CHANCE OF OVER 6 INCHES FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A GREATER
THAN 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF OVER A FOOT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM, WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AS HIGH
AS MINUS 3 IN SOUTHERN WYOMING AND MINUS 5 EVEN IN NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING, PUTTING SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET. A PLACE
LIKE THE STAR VALLEY OR EVEN JACKSON COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO RAIN AT TIMES TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER AIR
MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES LESS THAN 1 IN 4
CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT.
AS FOR EAST OF THE DIVIDE, THE MAIN STORY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE
WIND. WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY, AND BRING ANOTHER VERY
MILD DAY WITH SOME LOCATION SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60.
HIGH WIND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS LIKE THE
ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE WIND LOOKS TO
BE WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. AS OF NOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
SET UP FOR HIGH WIND. THE FRONT AND TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME
MIXING. A POTENT JET, POSSIBLY OVER 130 KNOTS, WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW 700
MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASING TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE HAVE AT LEAST A 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
PAST 55 MPH. SO, CHANCES ARE DECENT AT THIS TIME FOR SOME WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, AMOUNTS WOULD BE SMALL. THE
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF REMAINS SMALL, GENERALLY
LESS THAN A 1 OUT OF 6 CHANCE EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN THERE COULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET. IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, IT MAY END UP BEING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD, AT LEAST AT THE ONSET.
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT GUIDANCE IS SPLIT THIS FAR OUT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR JAC. LIGHT SNOW FROM A LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK ON
STATION THAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH 11Z BEFORE LIFTING
TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT BY 18Z. FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
OCCUR WITH SOME WIND OVERNIGHT IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN REMAINING
10KTS OR LESS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FOR RKS/CPR DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY DIMINISHING
TOWARDS SUNSET AFTER 00Z. INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT SPILLING OVER THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE WEST. OTHERWISE, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OVER
THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LOWE
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