246
FXUS65 KRIW 241138
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
438 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 5 AM
TUESDAY AND 5 AM WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS WITHIN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS HAVE A 80 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF ONE FOOT OR MORE OF
SNOW.
- WESTERN WYOMING VALLEYS WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN (70%) THAT SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WANE.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TUESDAY
OCCURRING OVER SOUTH PASS/RED CANYON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 35 TO 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS, AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING TOPPING 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS THIS
MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING,
BECOMING LIKELY AND SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
18Z. GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE FOR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. PINEY
CREEK, NEAR THE JOHNSON/SHERIDAN COUNTY LINE, ALREADY GUSTED TO 63
MPH AROUND 1130PM. CHIEF JOSEPH HIGHWAY IS CURRENTLY (AS OF 1225AM)
BLOWING AROUND 60 MPH AND HAD A 78 MPH GUST AROUND 945PM. WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER SOUTH PASS/RED CANYON AND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF CASPER. DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THIS STORM,
WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SPLIT THE DISCUSSION BETWEEN THE SNOW AND THE
WIND.
SNOW...
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WILL NOT MANY CHANGES. PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE COWBOY STATE TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE, WITH VALUES OF 0.35" TO 0.4" BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
TOWARD THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. THIS, COUPLED WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT, WILL LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW. THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
THE PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW, WITH 2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE
TETONS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE JACKSON AND STAR
VALLEYS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE
6000FT BY THIS TIME AND INCREASE CLOSE TO 7000FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, AS AN
INCOMING CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP BACK TO FREEZING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AS SNOW
BEGINS TO END. AREAS OF ICE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HAZARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS STANDING AREAS OF WATER FREEZE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN CANADIAN STORM SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHWARD. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND THE
SNOW WILL BECOME DRIER (NOT AS HEAVY AND WET). THIS COULD LEAD TO
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER TETON/TOGWOTEE PASSES, AS
BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
WIND...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE WARNED
AREAS WITH THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS (GUSTS OF 58+ MPH) ENDING
AROUND SUNRISE. THUS, WILL LIKELY EXPIRE THE WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 18Z FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO
NATRONA COUNTY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
WILL EXTEND THE WARNING FOR RED CANYON/SOUTH PASS THROUGH 00Z. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS
OVER THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE TO 55 TO 60
MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
A CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. THE MAIN REASON WILL BE
DUE TO A 140KT JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE PFJ AND AN ELONGATED
VORTICITY AXIS THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO 700MB WINDS OF 45 TO 60KT, WHICH WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING BY 15Z. WILL KEEP THE
HIGH WIND WATCHES IN PLACE FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN, NATRONA,
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE
FOR MOST AREAS AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS.
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO
SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY, AS WELL AS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG TO
HIGH WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE CLARK AREAS AND CHIEF JOSEPH PASS
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF 10C AT 700MB
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50 TO 70KT, PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT GAP
FLOW WIND EVENT. WILL KEEP TRACK OF THIS POSSIBLE EVENT, AS WINDS
COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NEXT
CANADIAN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ONLY CLIPPING NORTHERN
PORTIONS/JOHNSON COUNTY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP
TO MVFR AND IFR, FIRST AT KJAC AROUND 14Z, FOLLOWED BY KPNA AND KBPI
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AT KJAC AS TO WHEN RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW, AND IF
THIS TRANSITION TAKES LONGER, ANTICIPATE MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATER AS WELL. ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AT
KJAC, KPNA, AND KBPI, EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KRKS, THERE IS A 70% CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
AND/OR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 01Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF A STRAY RAIN SHOWER
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A PROP30 GROUP. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KJAC.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KJAC AND KRKS A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 30KTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT KBPI, GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AT KPNA THROUGH AT
LEAST 08Z WEDNESDAY.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. OF THE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE TERMINALS, KCOD HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE (50%) OF SEEING ANY
RAIN, AND ASSOCIATED REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS, THIS TAF PERIOD
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z AND A 30% CHANCE AFTER 21Z. THE MOST LIKELY
(50% TO 80% CHANCE) SCENARIO IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF KCOD. THERE EXISTS POTENTIAL FOR
VCSH AT KCPR AND A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
KWRL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KRIW
AND KLND REMAIN DRY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KCOD
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOD AND KCPR AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS AT THESE TWO TERMINALS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN BETWEEN 20KTS AND 30KTS, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 40KTS
NOT OUT OF QUESTION. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT KRIW AND
KLND WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ001-002-
012-014-024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ003-
010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ008-
009-013.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ015-016.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ015-016.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ017-019-020-027>030.
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...GERHARDT
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