191
FXUS65 KRIW 240400
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS COOL OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK WINDS. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTIER WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL, ALONG WITH VERY
DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY,
WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS REMAINING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS WINDY AND DRY WEATHER REMAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. TODAY FEATURES
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AVERAGE HIGHS THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID-40S (WEST OF DIVIDE) TO MID-50S (EAST OF
DIVIDE). TODAY'S HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S, WITH A FEW WARMER AREAS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE 70 DEGREE MARK. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER.
STILL LOOKING TO WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGHEST IMPACT DAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 30+
MPH GUSTS. WITH CURRENT PROJECTED JET STREAM POSITIONING, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE FURTHER NORTH. EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ABSAROKA, BIGHORN, AND WIND RIVER RANGES, AND THE NEARBY FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS LIKE CODY, BUFFALO, AND LANDER, ARE FAVORED FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS PATTERN. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED WINDY, DRY, AND WARM CONDITIONS.
HAVE CONSIDERED HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF AS MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS DON'T QUITE GO OUT THAT
FAR, SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS SLIGHTLY FLATTENED TO THE SOUTH CURRENTLY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO POUR INTO THE REGION
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS IS BRINGING SOME VARYING HIGH CIRRUS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH TODAY. WITH YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE EAST, THE WARMING TREND WILL KICK BACK IN
TODAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
STARTING TOMORROW, THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA STARTS TO
TIGHTEN, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH DRY AIR WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ELEVATED CONCERNS START TUESDAY, WITH NEAR
CRITICAL WINDS AND HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. WILL BE HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE DAY
WEDNESDAY FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ON TAP, WITH LATEST TIMING
RACING SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. A CONSIDERABLE
TEMPERATURE DROP IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT, BRINGING HIGHS BACK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S AND 50S, WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16-19Z FOR ALL
LOCATIONS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND PEAK MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01-02Z WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT COD DUE TO FUNNELING
TO THE WEST AND AT RIW DUE TO DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE WIND RIVER
BASIN. OTHERWISE, THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TO START
THE NEXT TAF CYCLE WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE DRY, WARM, AND WINDY. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH
HUMIDITY STRUGGLES TO RECOVER AND BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WELL-ABOVE TEMPERATURES (ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL) OCCUR WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S.
WIDESPREAD WINDS 30 TO 60 MPH ALSO OCCUR, STRONGEST FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-289.
UPDATE...WITTMANN
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...LOWE
FIRE WEATHER...WITTMANN
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