295
FXUS65 KRIW 240908
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
308 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING CONTINUES ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE TODAY WITH HIGHS
NEARLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE POTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT OF THIS, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED ONLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS LOOKS TO
CHANGE, AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH BACK NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST STARTING TODAY. THIS PUSH NORTH WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. 700 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE
BETWEEN 3 C AND 7 C ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
PACNW. THIS WILL START TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CREATING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. STRONGER GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ALONG THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM CASPER TO ROCK SPRINGS.
CHANCES OF SEEING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THIS AREA RANGE
FROM 60 TO 80%. THE INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY, HIGHS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MIN RH VALUES WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MARGINAL FOR THE MOST PART WITH ELEVATED
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WY.
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN INTENSIFIES FOR WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING VALUES AND WINDS
STRENGTHEN. 700 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH
TO THE SOUTH PUSHING FARTHER NORTH. THIS WILL CREATE A GRADIENT
OF 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE WITH THE COOLEST VALUES
AROUND 5C OVER NORTHWESTERN WY. TEMPERATURES WARM THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO, WITH CENTRAL WY SEEING VALUES AROUND 7 C
TO 10 C AND THE WARMEST VALUES OF 10 C TO 12 C ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SWEETWATER COUNTY. THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO NEAR
OR EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN WY AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
SOUTHERN WY SEES VALUES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHILE
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK TO GET INTO THE LOW 70S. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BASINS HAVING A 60-90% OF
SEEING HIGHS REACH OR EXCEED 80F. SOUTHERN WY HAS A 50-80%
CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS EXCEED 75F. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AND EVEN ALL-TIME MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY. THE NEWLY SET MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD OF 76F AT ROCK SPRINGS AIRPORT SET ON THE 21ST OF THIS
YEAR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ONCE AGAIN BE BROKEN. OTHER LOCATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING
NEW MONTHLY RECORDS BUT DAILY RECORDS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
TABLE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A NEARING DISTURBANCE
FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 700 MB WINDS ARE NOT
TOO CONCERNING IN REGARDS TO HIGH WIND HAZARDS BUT WITH VALUES
OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL BASINS AND ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS WITH
CHANCES RANGING FROM 40 TO 70%. MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE FURTHER, RANGING FROM 10 TO 15% ACROSS NEARLY ALL
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW MIN RH VALUES WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH A LIKELY UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNINGS COMING WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN WY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY IT
LOOKS TO STALL OVER CENTRAL WY. THIS MAY LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY. SO IT IS
POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN WY IF THE FRONT DOES STALL.
OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE 50S TO MID 60S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM SOME LOCATIONS GET. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ABSAROKAS AND
BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE BEST ODDS. CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION IS
LOOKING MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THESE RANGES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY AS A
RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY LOCATIONS LOOK TO SEE GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS FOR THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE
ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR
THE START OF APRIL. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16-19Z FOR ALL
LOCATIONS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND PEAK MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01-02Z WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT COD DUE TO FUNNELING
TO THE WEST AND AT RIW DUE TO DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE WIND RIVER
BASIN. OTHERWISE, THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TO START
THE NEXT TAF CYCLE WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
20 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WORSEN FOR WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT
OF NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WITH WIDESPREAD DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. WINDS STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10-15% ACROSS
NEARLY ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY.
HOWEVER, IT MAY STALL, POSSIBLY LEADING TO PERSISTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOUTHERN WY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ275>277-279>283-289.
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...LOWE
FIRE WEATHER...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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