646
FXUS65 KRIW 251848
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1248 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD BREAKING WARMTH, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS OCCUR
TODAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WY, WHICH ALSO HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO PRODUCE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE.
- A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SOME HIGHER AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE MAIN MESSAGE OF TODAY REMAINS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS, WITH
WIDESPREAD WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SEE FULL DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IS LIGHTNING. BETWEEN
ABOUT 6PM TODAY AND 6AM THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF A WEAK SHOWER TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING BETWEEN ROUGHLY ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER. THERE COULD ALSO
BE LIGHTNING OVER NORTHERN YELLOWSTONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN ACROSS THE
COWBOY STATE TUESDAY. IN TOTAL, 7 CLIMATE LOCATIONS SAW NEW OR
TIED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS VALUES GOT INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. MORE OF THE SAME IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TODAY, AS
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AS A RESULT OF THE POTENT HIGH TO THE SOUTH PUSHING
FARTHER NORTH. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THESE TEMPERATURES HAVE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY. THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WY HAVE COOLED
TO VALUES AROUND 2-3C. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE HIGH
NOT EXTENDING AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO,
WITH CENTRAL WY SEEING VALUES AROUND 7C TO 10C. SOUTHERN WY,
MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY, STILL LOOKS TO SEE 700MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10C TO 12C. THESE VALUES WILL STILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO
NEAR OR EVEN RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN WY AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. SOUTHERN WY SEES VALUES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
WHILE WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK TO GET INTO THE LOW 70S.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY, SHOWING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BASINS HAVING A 60-80% OF SEEING HIGHS REACH OR EXCEED
80F. SOUTHERN WY HAS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH A 50-80%
CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS EXCEED 75F. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AND EVEN ALL-TIME MARCH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WY HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING NEW MONTHLY
RECORDS, BUT DAILY RECORDS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE.
ASIDE FROM RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES, THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL
BE ON WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
IS THE RESULT OF A NEARING DISTURBANCE FURTHER TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. 700MB WINDS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING IN
REGARDS TO HIGH WIND HAZARDS, BUT WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONLY BE EXACERBATED. WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL BASINS AND ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS WITH
CHANCES RANGING FROM 40 TO 70%. MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE FURTHER, RANGING FROM 10 TO 15% ACROSS NEARLY ALL LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW MIN RH VALUES WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO THIS, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND
WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL LOWER
ELEVATIONS BESIDES WESTERN VALLEYS. SOME ADDITIONAL HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
THE CURING OF FUELS. THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDE CASPER MTN ALONG
WITH THE SOUTHERN BIGHORNS AND BRIDGER MTNS.
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PARTS OF THE STATE. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME NEW LOCATIONS
THAT MAY HAVE CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS. THE FIRST LOCATION LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN WY FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER DURING THE
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY WEAK SPLOTCHES OF INSTABILITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE OVERALL DRYNESS
OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH
THE SURFACE. CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRING CURRENTLY SIT AROUND
10-30%. THE OTHER LOCATION IS ALONG THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN
AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING MOISTURE REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO A MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.
THE LAST LOCATION IS THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS, WHERE A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN
RANGE THURSDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THURSDAY, IT LOOKS TO STALL OVER
CENTRAL WY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN WY DURING THE DAY. WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE,
THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 50S TO
MID 60S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING OVER SOUTHERN WY. AS
A RESULT OF THE FRONT STALLING AND NOT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTHERN WY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY. SO
THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN WY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LOOKS TO
TAKE A LITTLE TIME SO WARMING WILL BE GRADUAL WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING BACK INTO THE 70S BY SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS FOR THE NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE REMAINS SOME INDICATIONS OF AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE START OF APRIL. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WITH THIS FALLING AROUND APRIL
1ST IT WOULD NOT COME AS A SURPRISE IF THIS WAS JUST A CRUEL
APRIL FOOLS JOKE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH STRONG WIND FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN SCT-BKN200 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FROM STARTING AROUND 08Z AT KCOD
PUSHING THROUGH KWRL BY 10Z, KCPR BY 11Z, KRIW BY 12Z, AND KLND BY
13Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RANGE FROM
25-35 KNOTS ON AVERAGE, WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT KCPR, KRKS, AND KRIW. A LULL IN WIND WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, BUT WIND WILL STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS. THEN, WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT KCOD AND KCPR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW KEPT THEM AS SCT020-030 DUE
TO HOW DRY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME A CEILING
AT TIMES. WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR 00Z AND 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH, DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
KEY CONTRIBUTERS TO THIS. WINDS STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS NEARLY ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN WY THIS EVENING
WITH A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY. HOWEVER, DUE TO IT STALLING,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ275-276-
280>283-285-289-300.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ277>279.
UPDATE...WITTMANN
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...ROWE
FIRE WEATHER...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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