820
FXUS65 KRIW 260912
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
312 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH THE COWBOY STATE TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
- SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHERN WY TODAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN WY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS A RESULT OF WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- FRIDAY SEES QUIETER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A SHIFT FROM RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR NEXT WEEK WITH EARLY INDICATIONS OF A WETTER AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY THIS MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE THERE MAY BE A
FEW DROPS MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK DOWN NEARLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER GREATLY DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WY. THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST VALUES REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WY AS HIGHS ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. JOHNSON
COUNTY LOOKS TO BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY WITH FORECASTED HIGHS
ONLY AROUND 40. NATRONA COUNTY COULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY SPOT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO FREMONT COUNTY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MAYBE
LOW 60S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN WY WHERE THE FRONT WONT REACH UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH WESTERN VALLEYS BEING COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN WY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SOUTHERN WY AS THE LATE PASSING OF THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW 15%. DUE TO
THIS, RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WY. THE TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS, EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN
AND PARTS OF JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES. NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
IS A AREA OF INTEREST AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS OCCURRING HERE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOWFALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WET SNOW OR A MIX CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE BETTER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORN RANGES. THE BIGHORNS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH TO TWO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTY BY SUNSET.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
EACH PASSING DAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSETTLED AND WETTER PATTERN MAY BE ON ITS WAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS
WILL BE. SO OVERALL, NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
CHANGE FROM THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES
AT THIS MOMENT THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BUT CHANCES ARE SLOWING INCREASING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING A TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY WIND AT MOST TERMINALS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
LOWER, VFR CEILINGS TO KCOD AND KCPR STARTING BETWEEN 11Z AND
14Z, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS AND WILL BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, WIND WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AT TERMINALS AFTER 17Z, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF THE STATE TODAY. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOISTER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS OF
20 TO 35 MPH. SOUTHERN WY WILL BE THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS DUE
TO A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING. AS A RESULT, WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW RHS, AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT
TIMES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSISTED ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ENDED UP CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND LOW TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. A LOCATION OF NOTE WAS ROCK SPRINGS, WHICH HIT 78F
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR MARCH OF 76F,
WHICH OCCURRED ONLY A FEW DAYS AGO BACK ON MARCH 21ST. AN
EXAMPLE OF HOW ANOMALOUSLY WARM THAT VALUE IS, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR APRIL AT ROCK SPRINGS IS 79F MEANING WE
FELL ONLY 1 DEGREE SHORT OF TYING THE RECORD FOR APRIL WHILE
STILL IN MARCH. LANDER IS ANOTHER LOCATION OF NOTE, WITH RECORDS
GOING BACK TO 1891. THE MERCURY REACHED 81F MAKING IT THE THIRD
80 DEGREE DAY SO FAR THIS MONTH. NOW HOW ANOMALOUS IS HAVING
THREE 80 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH? WELL, WITH RECORDS GOING BACK
OVER 100 YEARS, LANDER BEFORE THIS YEAR HAS NEVER RECORDED AN
80 DEGREE DAY. LOOKING FORWARD INTO APRIL, IT WOULD NOW TIE THE
CURRENT RECORD FOR MOST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF APRIL.
IN TOTAL ALL 9 OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BROKE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WEDNESDAY BY MULTIPLE DEGREES. THESE RECORDS
WILL ONLY BE ADDING TO THE LONG LIST OF RECORDS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN BROKEN THIS MONTH. OVERALL, THE POINT THAT IS
TRYING TO BE MADE HERE IS THIS RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD
BREAKING HEAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS FOR MARCH AND WILL LIKELY BE
REMEMBERED FOR YEARS TO COME.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277>279.
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...MYERS
FIRE WEATHER...DZIEWALTOWSKI
CLIMATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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