832
FXUS65 KRIW 270445
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1045 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR FROM CASPER TO BUFFALO THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FAVORED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER TODAY THANKS TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR FROM CASPER TO BUFFALO ARE ALSO THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT.
THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE OF HANGING AROUND THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE 30S IN THIS AREA AND WILL NOT IMPROVE
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AS LONG AS THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. MIST AND
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
AROUND BUFFALO. THERE WILL BE NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE LIMITED MOISTURE EXITS
THE AREA.
FOR THE RED FLAG WARNINGS CONDITIONS HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED
THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP THIS
AFTERNOON, SO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 9 PM
MDT FOR NOW. THEY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF HUMIDITY VALUES
DO NOT DROP AS LOW AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, IT
REMAINS VERY DRY AND WINDY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY TODAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON
FRIDAY. CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA, ARE MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WY THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE,
THERE MAY BE A FEW DROPS MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE.
THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT WILL SUBSIDE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK DOWN NEARLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL DIFFER GREATLY DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WY. THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST VALUES REMAINING OVER
NORTHERN WY AS HIGHS ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
JOHNSON COUNTY LOOKS TO BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY, WITH FORECASTED
HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40. NATRONA COUNTY COULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY
SPOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO SLOW BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO FREMONT COUNTY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 50S AND MAYBE
LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN WY, WHERE THE FRONT WONT REACH UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH WESTERN VALLEYS BEING COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN WY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SOUTHERN WY AS THE LATE PASSING OF THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW 15%. DUE TO
THIS, RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WY. THE TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS, EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN
AND PARTS OF JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES. NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY
IS AN AREA OF INTEREST AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS OCCURRING HERE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOWFALL IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE BETTER ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORN RANGES.
THE BIGHORNS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH TO TWO.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER JOHNSON AND NATRONA
COUNTY BY SUNSET.
THE START OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
EACH PASSING DAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UNSETTLED AND WETTER PATTERN MAY BE ON ITS WAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS
WILL BE. SO OVERALL, NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A MUCH WELCOMED
CHANGE FROM THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES
AT THIS MOMENT THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BUT CHANCES ARE SLOWING INCREASING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KCPR WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS MOST OF
TONIGHT, AND MAY VARY RIGHT ALONG THE MVFR CUTOFF THROUGH
SUNRISE. SOME 5000 FOOT CIGS ALSO NOTED AROUND KWRL AND AT KLND,
AND LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE SHOULD KEEP THESE IN PLACE TROUGH
SUNRISE. EARLY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD THIN ALL LOW CLOUD DECK BY
MIDMORNING. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSISTED ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ENDED UP CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND LOW TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. A LOCATION OF NOTE WAS ROCK SPRINGS, WHICH HIT 78F
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR
MARCH OF 76F. THIS PREVIOUS RECORD OCCURRED ONLY A FEW DAYS AGO
BACK ON MARCH 21ST. AN EXAMPLE OF HOW ANOMALOUSLY WARM THAT
VALUE IS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR APRIL AT ROCK SPRINGS
IS 79F MEANING WE FELL ONLY 1 DEGREE SHORT OF TYING THE RECORD
FOR APRIL WHILE STILL IN MARCH. LANDER IS ANOTHER LOCATION OF
NOTE, WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1891. THE MERCURY REACHED 81F
MAKING IT THE THIRD 80 DEGREE DAY SO FAR THIS MONTH. LANDER,
BEFORE THIS YEAR HAS NEVER RECORDED AN 80 DEGREE DAY IN THE
MONTH OF MARCH. IT WOULD NOW TIE THE CURRENT RECORD FOR MOST 80
DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF APRIL. IN TOTAL ALL 9 OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES BROKE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WEDNESDAY BY
MULTIPLE DEGREES. THESE RECORDS WILL ONLY BE ADDING TO THE LONG
LIST OF RECORDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN THIS MONTH.
OVERALL, THIS RECENT STRETCH OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS VERY
ANOMALOUS FOR MARCH AND WILL LIKELY BE REMEMBERED FOR YEARS TO
COME.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ROWE
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...STRAUB
CLIMATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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