935
FXUS65 KRIW 272019
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
219 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO WEATHER HAZARDS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW
THROUGH MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN.
- RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
- A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS POISED TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BACK TO BACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A CALM SPRING DAY HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE I-25 GAVE WAY TO SUNSHINE EARLIER THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
AGAIN TONIGHT THEY WILL NOT QUITE BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, WHICH
ENDED UP BEING A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
BEEN VERY WARM AS OF LATE, REMEMBER IT IS STILL MARCH, SO THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT FULLY BEGUN YET. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL NOT LAST AS TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ABNORMALLY
WARM ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES THAT
WERE ISSUED LAST NIGHT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH
THE TIMING FROM NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WIND DECREASES
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL NOT DIMINISH ENTIRELY OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY
FROM NOON TO 9 PM MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START (GIVEN THE RECENT TREND OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES) THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S. IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S (THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH). THE ONLY DOWNSIDE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LEESIDE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. MOST OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN
BASIN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THESE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, RH VALUES
WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION ZONES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TO RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AS WELL, WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AS A TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000FT. THUS, WILL ISSUE FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES FOR SATURDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP, REACHING AT LEAST 6000FT. ANY SNOW THAT MAY FALL
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MELT AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE RISING MARCH SUN ANGLE. OTHERWISE, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS ARE RATHER LIGHT SO
FAR, RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
EXIT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT
WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH DIGS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COWBOY STATE THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH (WITH A CLOSED LOW) BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM WITH FINGERS CROSSED FOR THE
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL
LOCATIONS 10KTS OR LESS WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN SATURDAY AND
LAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 MPH MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RH
RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 7000FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
WYZ276>280-283-285-287-289-300.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ275-281-282.
UPDATE...ROWE
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...LOWE
FIRE WEATHER...LAVOIE
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