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FXUS65 KRIW 031706
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1106 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
- AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO THE ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORNS THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL START WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S AND 70S. THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TODAY FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE ABSAROKAS AND BIGHORNS. WHILE MOISTURE HAS
STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS,
THERE STILL ISN'T A WHOLE LOT TO PRODUCE MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH
SHOWERS TODAY.
THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT WYOMING MONDAY
MORNING, AS A FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN WY/MT BORDER RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY, AND REACHES AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 18Z, BEFORE
SPREADING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING
ALONG VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEHIND IT, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A GOOD
WETTING RAIN, BUT SOME SHADOWING ACROSS THE BIGHORN BASIN MAY
KEEP AMOUNTS THERE TO A MINIMUM. WITH THE FRONT STRETCHED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER DURING THE EVENING, BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL WOULD BE FOCUSED FROM THE WINDS EAST ALONG THE GREENS
AND CASPER MOUNTAIN. RAIN DECREASES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT A BRIEF SECONDARY NORTH WIND PUSH WILL KEEP VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW GOING FOR ALL EXCEPT FOR THE BIGHORN BASIN AND
THE NW PARKS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CURRENT ACCUMULATION
NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED STEADY FOR A COUPLE TENTHS FOR THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE, WITH THE HIGHEST BAND NEAR A HALF
INCH FOR THE WINDS EAST TO CASPER MOUNTAIN. MODELS HAVE NUDGED
AMOUNTS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND WITH LAST COUPLE
EVENTS THE MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED FINAL TOTALS, SO CURRENT
TOTALS MAY BE A BIT HIGH.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S, WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES MAY BRING
LIGHT HEATING-OF-THE-DAY SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS NEAR KCOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE A SHOWER MOVES OVER KCOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, OR MORE LIKELY VIRGA
SHOWERS, BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, WITH THE LAST DIMINISHING BY 03Z. ANY
SITE COULD SEE A GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND UP TO 50 KNOTS (HIGH END) FROM
THESE, THOUGH UP TO 30 KNOTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH STARTING AROUND 12Z.
THIS BRINGS A GUSTY NORTH WIND SHIFT TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KCOD AND KWRL.
PRECIPITATION THEN FOLLOWS, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
JUST AFTER THE PERIOD, FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...WITTMANN
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