768
FXUS65 KRIW 071035
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
435 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WYOMING (~20% COVERAGE).
- WARMER AND BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20-30% COVERAGE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MANY OF
THE SAME AREAS.
- DRY AND WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
IR DEPICTS A MINOR SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE
MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WITH THE PFJ REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF CANADA TO
MONTANA THEN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT
DIVERGENCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STRENGTHENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WYOMING (~300-400 J/KG) AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES TO RENDER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL BE FROM SOUTH OF CODY OFF THE ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS TO THE OWL CREEKS/SOUTHERN BIGHORNS. THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STORM BEFORE SUNSET FOR JOHNSON COUNTY AS WELL NEAR
BUFFALO, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS THE MAIN HAZARD TO SPEAK OF OUTSIDE
OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
ACTIVITY, THESE WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AS THESE WILL HAVE
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION THROUGHOUT.
BEYOND THAT, EXPECT CLEARING AND ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL YIELD EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE/70S TO THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LOOK AT NOT UNTIL WEEK'S END INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE MORE POTENT ACCORDING TO THE
MORE ACCURATE EC FOR LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.
SOME ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT CPR BETWEEN 13-17Z
TO BRING LOWER BUT VFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (20-30%) FOR COD/WRL/CPR BETWEEN 21-01Z
AS LOWER CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH SUNSET. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY AS WINDS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTER AROUND
19-21Z, HIGHEST AT RKS UP TO 35KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
02-03Z WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING 10KTS OR LESS WITH MID LEVELS CLOUDS
REMAIN BEFORE CLEARING INTO THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...LOWE
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