417
FXUS65 KRIW 071717
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1117 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS (35 TO 45 MPH).
- AFTER A WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- WIDESPREAD WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SET IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
IR DEPICTS A MINOR SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE
MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WITH THE PFJ REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF CANADA TO
MONTANA THEN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT
DIVERGENCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STRENGTHENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WYOMING (~300-400 J/KG) AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES TO RENDER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL BE FROM SOUTH OF CODY OFF THE ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS TO THE OWL CREEKS/SOUTHERN BIGHORNS. THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STORM BEFORE SUNSET FOR JOHNSON COUNTY AS WELL NEAR
BUFFALO, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS THE MAIN HAZARD TO SPEAK OF OUTSIDE
OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
ACTIVITY, THESE WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AS THESE WILL HAVE
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION THROUGHOUT.
BEYOND THAT, EXPECT CLEARING AND ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL YIELD EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE/70S TO THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LOOK AT NOT UNTIL WEEK'S END INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE MORE POTENT ACCORDING TO THE
MORE ACCURATE EC FOR LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT, OR
POTENTIALLY IMPACT KCOD, KCPR, KWRL, KRIW, KLND, AND KPNA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (50 TO 70 PERCENT) IN
THUNDERSTORMS AT OR IN THE AREA OF KCOD, KCPR, AND KWRL FROM 19Z
TODAY TO 01Z FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS
BETWEEN 30KTS AND 40KTS WITH VERY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL
IN A STRONGER STORM. AFTER SUNSET, THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
KCOD AND KCPR COULD SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS.
ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS AT KWRL, LOW CEILINGS/FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP UNTIL SOUTHERLY WINDS SET IN BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW DENSE THIS WILL BE. KRIW, KPNA, AND KLND HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET (03Z) TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL
INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (AT LEAST 90 PERCENT CHANCE) THAT
DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJAC, KRKS, AND KBPI
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. KJAC AND KBPI GENERALLY HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER FROM 22Z TO 01Z. ALL TERMINALS CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
FROM 08Z FRIDAY AND ONWARD.
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20KTS TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 03Z, AT THE LATEST FOR MOST TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS
COULD HOLD ON LONGER AT KRIW AND KRKS UNTIL 05Z/06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...GERHARDT
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