518
FXUS65 KRIW 072322
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
522 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS (35 TO 45 MPH).
- AFTER A WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE, AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- WIDESPREAD WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SET IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS STARTING TO PICK UP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. CONTINUED SOLAR HEATING WILL LEAD TO FURTHER EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION AS SBCAPE VALUES REACH 300 TO 500+ J/KG EAST OF THE
DIVIDE, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
T/TD DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 35 TO 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS AS THE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST; THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, THOUGH SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CELLS GIVEN EXPECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
LAST STORMS EXITING THE AREA AROUND 3AM. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS WYOMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
IR DEPICTS A MINOR SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BRINGING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE
MERIDIONAL LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WITH THE PFJ REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF CANADA TO
MONTANA THEN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT
DIVERGENCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A STRENGTHENED GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
SEEING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WYOMING (~300-400 J/KG) AND DECENT LAPSE
RATES TO RENDER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL BE FROM SOUTH OF CODY OFF THE ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS TO THE OWL CREEKS/SOUTHERN BIGHORNS. THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED STORM BEFORE SUNSET FOR JOHNSON COUNTY AS WELL NEAR
BUFFALO, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS THE MAIN HAZARD TO SPEAK OF OUTSIDE
OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
ACTIVITY, THESE WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AS THESE WILL HAVE
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION THROUGHOUT.
BEYOND THAT, EXPECT CLEARING AND ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
ANOTHER SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AMPLE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL YIELD EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE/70S TO THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGHER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LOOK AT NOT UNTIL WEEK'S END INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND LOOKING TO BE MORE POTENT ACCORDING TO THE
MORE ACCURATE EC FOR LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) CONTINUES THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z/04Z AT KCOD AND KWRL AND
UNTIL 07Z AT KCPR. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 25
KTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
SHOWER CHANCES (30 PERCENT) CONTINUE AT KRIW AND IN THE AREA
AROUND KLND UNTIL 06Z/07Z. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM 07Z
ONWARD. AT KWRL, LOW CEILINGS/FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW DENSE THIS WILL BE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
(10-30 PERCENT CHANCE) AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AT KCPR, KRIW,
AND KLND.
BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 KTS TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL 03Z, AT THE LATEST FOR MOST TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS COULD HOLD
ON LONGER AT KRIW AND KRKS UNTIL 05Z/06Z FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20KTS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AT KRKS, KPNA, AND KBPI. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MYERS
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...STRAUB/GERHARDT
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