807
FXUS65 KRIW 081030
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
430 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS FREMONT TO NATRONA
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
- WARMER AND A DRY REST OF FRIDAY IN STORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY.
STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BIGHORNS (20-30%) WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOWS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- WARMING AND DRY TREND FOR SUNDAY AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA AS DEPICTED ON WV
IMAGERY WITH THE PFJ NOW RETREATED TO THE NORTHEAST COMING OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. IR SHOWS SUBSIDENCE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS
THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
FREMONT AND INTO NATRONA COUNTY THAT WILL DIMINISH AND EXIT THE
CWA BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL.
CONVERGENCE AND DRY SLOTTING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES (~5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY) WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR, BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL WITH AN
OVERALL WEAK TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THE
NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
DROPPING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FROM THE NORTH COME SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
40-50% COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE A BIT MORE NORTHEAST THAN IT WAS
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS LOOK TO BE EAST OF THE BIGHORNS
FOR JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES WHERE CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE MORE
INTRIGUING FOR WYOMING STANDARDS ~250-350 J/KG. GUSTY OUTFLOWS
LOOK TO BE THE HAZARD OUTSIDE OF ANY LIGHTNING TO OCCUR AND
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. NOTHING OF HIGH SIGNIFICANCE BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL HELP IN THESE AREAS. REGARDLESS, ONCE THE SUN
SETS, ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT TO THE
EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND DRY OUT COME SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD IN TO BE MORE ORIENTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE LOOK TO
PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S WITH 70S TO THE WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LOW RH
VALUES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, EVEN WITH GREENUP NOW ONGOING
FOR ALL ZONES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF NOTE LOOKS TO BE BY
WEEK'S END LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BRING A
REPRIEVE FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
INCREASE WEST OF THE DIVIDE, HIGHEST AT RKS UP TO 25KTS DURING
PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18-03Z. SKIES CONTINUE TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY, WITH
MID LEVEL CEILINGS AT COD/WRL/CPR AFTER 06-07Z. ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH NO OTHER
WEATHER ELEMENTS FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...LOWE
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