065
FXUS65 KRIW 162150
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
350 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND HUMIDITY OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WYOMING
TONIGHT, LEADING TO COOLER HIGHS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL LEAD TO NEAR- TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE WIND BEGINS DECREASING. THE FRONT MENTIONED BELOW WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN AROUND THE SAME TIME THIS EVENING,
REACHING THE DIVIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WINDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE FRONT WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A SUBTLE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE WIND RIVER AND
BIGHORN BASINS AND PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z (10AM AND 12PM). THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED AFTER 20Z
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH VALUES BELOW
15% AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY, DUE TO THE CRITICAL FUELS IN THIS ZONE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR VIRGA SHOWERS/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN UP AGAINST
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS AND CROSSING OVER JOHNSON COUNTY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, REACHING THE
DIVIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN STATIONARY
ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS WELL AS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.
MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY, WITH WINDS NOT BEING
SO STRONG. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LOOK TO BE CONFINED OVER AREAS WEST OF
THE DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY, MARKING A RETURN FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL ON THESE DAYS AS WELL, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, AS THE REMNANTS OF
A PACIFIC LOW MOVE OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW, THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR FROM THESE STORMS, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.75" TO 1" ARE FORECASTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH WINDS DECREASE A BIT LATE
THIS EVENING, WINDS DO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS RAMP UP
AGAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
DRY COLD FRONT ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY, BRINGING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL TODAY,
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
RH VALUES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WINDS. THUS, A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 280 WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL AT THIS
TIME.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TURNING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY IN THIS AREA. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL RETURN FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS (ZONES 277/278/279) ALSO HAVE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICAL ACROSS
THE SOUTH, AND PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN, AS THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONARY ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ280.
UPDATE...MYERS
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...WITTMANN
FIRE WEATHER...LAVOIE
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