877
FXUS65 KRIW 061429
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
829 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3
PM MONDAY WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH, AND HAIL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. CHANCES FURTHER DECREASE
WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH RECORD-BREAKING HEAT POSSIBLE THE WEEKEND OF JULY 11-12.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
SUNDAY SAW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN FLIRTED WITH
THE CENTURY MARK, WHILE CENTRAL WY SAW HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE HIT THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90F.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BRIEF HINT AT WHAT COULD
POSSIBLY BE ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A WHOLE WEEK
OF WEATHER TO ADDRESS BEFORE THAT.
THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH A NICE BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN WY THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT MORE
IMPORTANTLY INCREASED DEWPOINTS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN WY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY START MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO, PORTIONS
OF MONTANA, AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
WHILE ALSO SLOWLY PUSHING IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MAINLY OVER WESTERN WY. CONVECTION REALLY KICKS
OFF AFTER NOON, ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST ACROSS
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN WY. CHANCES RANGE FROM 20 TO 40%
FOR MUCH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
30 TO 60% OVER NORTHERN WY. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF
5) OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN WY WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY NEAR
50F. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 500 TO POSSIBLY 1,000 J/KG
OVER THIS AREA. LESSER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WY. THE NEARING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
CREATE SOME FAVORABLE 700-500 MB SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 30-40 KTS
ACROSS PORTION OF CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WY. FAVORABLE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE NEARLY 100-150% ABOVE NORMAL,
SO SOME STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
OVERALL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL,
AND NORTHERN WY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SMALL TO LARGE HAIL (~1"), AND POSSIBLY A
FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SWEETWATER AND PORTIONS OF
NATRONA/FREMONT COUNTY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 45-55F. THIS MEANS
IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP NEARBY, WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY
(10-20%) THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 45
MPH OR MORE.
SHOWERS AND WEAKENING STORMS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING MONDAY INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. SOME CAMS DO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, CHANCES SIT AROUND 20-40% WITH LESSER
CHANCES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TUESDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE CAVEAT BEING
WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS LIKELY BEING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS, SOME MINOR
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND LOW 80S WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTER TUESDAY MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER AND WARMER SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO
THE LOW 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY
BUT AT THIS TIME CHANCES FOR MOISTURE LOOK SLIM.
LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR A LITTLE
WHILE NOW AND THAT "THING" IS A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY POTENT RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE STILL NEARLY A
WEEK OUT THERE IS TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE BUT AT THE MOMENT,
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS.
TEMPERATURES START TO TURN UP FRIDAY WITH CURRENT HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SOAR FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOWING A 30-70% CHANCE
FOR HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100F EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND 40-80%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS AROUND 105F FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN.
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE DO NOT LOOK TO BE SPARED WITH A
20-50% CHANCE OF HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 90S. THERE IS
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL TO SEE WIDESPREAD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS BROKEN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN TOO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO
COOL ALL TOO MUCH WITH BREEZY WINDS KEEPING LOWS ABOVE 60 ACROSS
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
THINGS TO SHIFT AND CHANGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS CERTAINLY AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD BREAKING PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HEAT. SO UNLIKE THAT ONE SONG, THE DOG DAYS ARE NOT OVER, SO YOU
BETTER BE SURE TO CHECK THAT A/C IS WORKING PROPERLY!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z MONDAY. ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH KRKS BEING THE LONE TERMINAL WITH ONLY
VICINITY PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR
MORE AT TIMES. 22Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NEARLY ALL TERMINALS. IF
ANY STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. KJAC, KPNA, AND KBPI MAY SEE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO IMPROVE AND DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY NEARBY KCOD. OTHERWISE, NEARLY ALL TERMINALS SHOULD DRY
OUT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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