072
FXUS65 KRIW 072307
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
507 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH, PEA-TO DIME-SIZED HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST-CENTRAL WY EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN WY.
- WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER JOHNSON COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOME AREAS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WY, AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB ON FRIDAY TO 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY, WITH MID 90S IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS, AND 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AS I WROTE IN A COUPLE OF DISCUSSIONS LAST WEEK ABOUT THIS SAME
TIME OF DAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST GREAT BASIN THROUGH WYOMING. MOISTURE IS AMPLE WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO THE MID 50S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWO-THIRDS TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. BASED ON THE RIW 18Z SOUNDING (STILL IN FLIGHT), AS
TEMPERATURES REACH AROUND 90 F, CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS OF
1210 PM, CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED IN THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND NEAR COKEVILLE AND FLAMING GORGE, MOVING ENE
TODAY. THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST WY TOWARD CENTRAL WY AND INTO
JOHNSON COUNTY WILL HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 MPH THE
PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EVEN FROM HIGHER CLOUD
BASES AND SMALL(ISH) HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
NORTHEAST WY, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP AROUND JOHNSON COUNTY FROM
5 TO 8 PM HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER. CAMS AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY
TOO.
THE GENERAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED YET AGAIN OVER
JOHNSON COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF WRITING THIS AROUND 0100 MDT, A COUPLE
FLASHES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WY.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY WANING WITH CLUSTERS OF
LIGHTNING CONTINUING TO DECREASE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN WY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH THE BULK DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR THE "ACTIVE" WEATHER
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS MONTANA WHILE USHERING IN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH PWATS BEING NEARLY 100-150% ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE
VALUES IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COVERAGE TODAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH WITH NORTHWESTERN
WY LIKELY HAVING LESSER CHANCES OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM COMPARED
TO ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ASIDE
FROM NORTHWESTERN WY LOOK TO RANGE FROM 20-40% WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WY.
THE OTHER ASPECT REGARDING THE CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE
STATE WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5). THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN WY, SPECIFICALLY MUCH OF YNP
AND THE TETONS/JACKSON HOLE WHERE THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN
EXCLUDED. THERE IS A VERY SMALL SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5)
FOR A PORTION OF JOHNSON COUNTY MAINLY DUE TO LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE
SETUP IS A WIDE SWATH OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING HELPING PRODUCE CAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. SOME CAMS ARE HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS
OF JOHNSON COUNTY AND CENTRAL WY WITH SWATHS OF CAPE NEARING 1000
J/KG. SO IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THERE COULD BE MORE JUICE FOR ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AS WELL. THE OTHER FACTOR WILL BE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS AS A RESULT OF THE NEARBY SHORT WAVE. LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND
SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. OVERALL,
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH CAMS
HIGHLIGHTING FAVORABLE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES. STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50 MPH OR MORE AT TIMES. THERE DOES
REMAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS BEING
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WY, SPECIFICALLY JOHNSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ANOTHER DAY WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ONCE AGAIN IS THE RESULT OF
LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY, MUCH OF THE
STATE LOOKS TO HAVE SIMILAR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO DIMINISH AND
SHIFT FARTHER EAST. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ASIDE FROM THESE
LOCATIONS, THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL SEE SIMILAR HAZARDS AS
THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE.
NO, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN A TECHNICAL GLITCH IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST MODELS, IT REALLY IS LOOKING TO BE THAT HOT THIS
WEEKEND. SOME LONG TERM MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF INDICATING
THIS HEAT AS EARLY AS LAST WEEK. BARRING SOME MIRACULOUS SHIFT IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN, WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT, RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THIS HEAT WILL BE
THE RESULT OF AN ANOMALOUSLY POTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES START TO TURN UP
FRIDAY WITH CURRENT HIGHS GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
WESTERN VALLEYS SUCH AS STAR VALLEY AND JACKSON HOLE POSSIBLY SEEING
HIGHS AROUND 95F SATURDAY. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO NO
SURPRISE ARE WARMER, WITH CENTRAL BASINS SEEING HIGHS NEARING THE
CENTURY MARK. NORTHERN LOCATIONS, SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN
BASIN MAY SEE HIGHS NEARING 105F. SUNDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE SEEING 20-40% OF HIGHS NEARING 100F.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE CENTRAL BASINS HAVE 20-50% FOR HIGHS AROUND 105F.
PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN MAY SEE HIGHS NEAR 110F WITH CHANCES
SITTING AROUND 10-30%. THESE PERCENTAGES ARE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. SO IF THERE IS A 20-50% FOR HIGHS NEAR
105F, ITS LIKELY THE HIGHS WILL AT LEAST BE GREATER THAN 100F. THERE
IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT NUMEROUS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE MET OR
BROKEN. CLIMATE DATA AT KLND GOES BACK TO 1891 AND THE CURRENT ALL
TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 102F SET BACK IN 1935 ON JULY 27TH.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS A FORECAST HIGH OF 104F FOR SUNDAY, SO THAT
SHOULD GIVE AN IDEA OF HOW HISTORIC THIS PERIOD OF HEAT MAY BE. YES,
THIS DEGREE OF HEAT CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE WHO ARE AT RISK OR DO
NOT USE CAUTION. SO BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE FORECAST AND
BE PREPARED, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BETWEEN 02Z-05Z/WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WIND 25-
40KTS REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER, BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE
COULD STILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF, LESS THAN 30-MINUTE, MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY OVER THE NORTH-HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE A DRY SUB-CLOUD
BASE OVER THE SOUTH FAVORS GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND 30-45KTS. MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN PERSISTS IN STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-THIRD OF WYOMING. BY
15Z/WEDNESDAY, CLOUD COVER CLEARS THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS THAN THAT OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KRKS AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KCOD AND KWRL WHERE PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.
OTHERWISE, ALL TERMINALS TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-TERM MVFR.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MCDONALD
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...CNJ/ROWE
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