981
FXUS65 KRIW 280408
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1008 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
- MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
- THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY REPRESENTS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
MORE CLOUDS TODAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA
WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SHOWERS, AND THE
OCCASIONAL STORM, HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
INTERESTINGLY, THE HRRR MODEL HAS A LONG LINE OF GUSTY WINDS 50
TO 55 MPH ACCOSTED WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WESTERN WY STARTING ABOUT 2PM, MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. WILL SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS FOR EACH HOUR'S
UPDATE. OTHERWISE, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES TODAY LESS THAN
YESTERDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. INCREASING SMOKE WILL
ALSO OCCUR OVER THE AREA, MAINLY NORTHERN WY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW WITH THE FIRES IN THE WESTERN US, AS WELL AS A PLUME OF
SMOKE COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEVADA
FIRES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE DOMINANT WESTERN RIDGING PATTERN HOLDS FIRM AGAIN TODAY,
THE H5 RIDGE STILL ANCHORED ON THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
SOUTHWEST TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TODAY, AND MOST
MODELS ARE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE, DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH TODAY
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE GOOD FORWARD MOTION OF ANY STORMS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING LOW. CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND ANY
COVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL TAP THIS HEAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL SUPPORT
MAY BE MORE LIMITED, SO SHOWERS MIGHT END UP MORE ISOLATED.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE COMES AROUND THE RIDGE
THROUGH WYOMING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH, MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE NOTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN MOISTURE, AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
PERIOD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO
SWEETWATER COUNTY BY 21Z. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM BOTH OF
THESE AREAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
BASINS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE INCLUDED FOR TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED, NAMELY, KJAC, KBPI/KPNA, KCOD AND KRKS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES PASS
NEAR TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP
FOR KCPR BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z WEDNESDAY, AS THE REMAINING SHOWERS
OVER JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES EXIT TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT (11KT OR LESS) THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 1 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ010.
UPDATE...WITTMANN
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...LAVOIE
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