357
FXUS65 KRIW 200713
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
113 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN
WYOMING, BUT THE CHANCE OF AN SPOT SEEING ONE IS LESS THAN 1
OUT OF 4.
- DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
- THE DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
YESTERDAY WAS ONE OF THOSE LATE SUMMER DAYS THAT MAKE ME HAPPY TO
LIVE IN WYOMING. WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, NO PRECIPITATION
AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE THE LAST ONE OF THESE
DAYS WE WILL SEE FOR A WHILE. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE ONE FROM
TIME TO TIME, BUT NOT ALL AT ONCE.
ALL IS QUIET RIGHT NOW ACROSS WYOMING AND THE HUMBLE RIVERTON
WEATHER ABODE. HOWEVER, THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN
STARTING TODAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A GRADUALLY RAMP UP RATHER THAN
FLIPPING A SWITCH. AND, WE WILL START THE DAY OFF DRY TODAY.
HOWEVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE, WHICH WAS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
YESTERDAY, WILL BEGIN TO COME BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER, AS
IS THE USUAL TREND, IT WILL START AT THE MID LEVELS AND MAINLY IN
WESTERN WYOMING. THE RESULT WILL BE A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ONE. THE CHANCE AT ANY ONE SPOT IS NO MORE
THAN 1 OUT OF 4, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE IN PLACES LIKE SOUTHERN
LINCOLN AND WESTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. I CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THE
CHANCE IS SMALL, LESS THAN 1 IN 10. AND, THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN. MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A GREATER THAN
50 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION WITH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS, PLUS THE TELL TALE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, SHOW A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWER OR STORM. THIS
DOES HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO BE ONE THOSE "LITTLE GREEN BLOB" DAYS.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AND,
WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
RISING, IT WILL BE HOT DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS
BELOW AROUND 5500 FEET WILL SEE HIGHS OVER 90.
FRIDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR, WITH MOST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND CHANCES REMAINING SMALL AT
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION, GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 OUT OF 4 ONCE AGAIN.
THE BIGGER STORY ON THIS DAY WILL BE THE HEAT. THE 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON THIS DAY, RISING AS HIGH AS 20 CELSIUS. MOST
LOCATIONS BELOW 6000 FEET HAVE AT LEAST A 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER 95. THERE IS EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW OF
THE WARMER SPOTS, LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND, TOUCHING 100.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A SOMEWHAT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE CUT BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO RISE CONSIDERABLY, TO
AS MUCH AS AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AS
FOR AREA OF GREATEST COVERAGE, MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS AREA WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. HOWEVER, NOT ONLY THERE. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE ALL
AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE ONE. AND THIS FAR OUT, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE MODELS LATELY, BOTH THE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE, HAVE BEEN
ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE IN HANDING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION WITH THE
MONSOON. SO MAY CONFIDENCE ON A DRY SATURDAY NIGHT IS ROCK BOTTOM AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER,
BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS ON
SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN A
MORE ACTIVE AREA OR DAY THIS FAR OUT. WITH RIDGING REMAINING OVER
THE AREA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IMPACTING KBPI,
KPNA, AND KRKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS UP
TO A 15% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT KLND, KRIW, AND
KRIW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND UP TO 45 KNOTS. MOST RAIN WILL NOT REACH
THE GROUND, BUT A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
WIND WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS. WIND MAY REMAIN A BIT BREEZY
AT KBPI, KPNA, AND KRKS WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING IF OUTFLOWS
LINGER.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...ROWE
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