536
FXUS65 KRIW 101050
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
450 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY DUE
TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS.
- CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VIRGA SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
- THE TIMING FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHED TO
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE TRACK OF THE
STORM STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS AGAIN AND A COOLER DAY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. RH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 7 TO 15 PERCENT WILL OCCUR FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS FOR
WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE TO NATRONA COUNTY. THE HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 MPH WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. BURNING OF ANY KIND CONTINUES TO
BE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED! OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE
DIVIDE.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR VIRGA SHOWERS
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL BASINS LOOK TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR MOST AREAS AND
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 03Z FRIDAY (9PM THURSDAY), WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH CONTINUING OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA AND WIND
RIVER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING AND END BY 18Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE PART OF A LARGER PUSH
OF MOISTURE FROM UT/ID MOVING OVER THE COWBOY STATE. THIS INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE THE CAUSE WHY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT DROP
BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHED TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON,
MOVING THROUGH JACKSON, CODY AND KAYCEE BY 00Z SATURDAY (6PM
FRIDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS
A RESULT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY,
KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO
THE DIVIDE BY 06Z SATURDAY, BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED DRAMATICALLY
THIS RUN. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A TRACK THAT IS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. INITIAL INDICATIONS SHOW THE FRONT GETTING
PUSHED INTO THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY BY SATURDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING,
AS THE STORM BEGINS TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY CONFINED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE STORM STAYS FURTHER NORTH IN MT. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COWBOY STATE SUNDAY NIGHT, CLEARING
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
SKC SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE 18Z BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST, BECOMING FEW-SCT FL250 THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL BASINS BETWEEN
01Z AND 06Z, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25KT AT MOST TERMINALS,
STARTING AT 16Z AT KCPR AND INCREASING AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
EXCEPT KWRL THROUGH 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z, BECOMING LIGHT (11KT OR LESS) THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS AFTER 10Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH ARE NOW EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 35 MPH EXPECTED IN
ZONES 286 AND 288. CRITICAL RH VALUES BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT
WILL OCCUR IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND RIVER AND BIGHORN
BASINS BETWEEN 1800 AND 2300. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO
POOR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR ZONES EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES FROM
DROPPING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, RANGING BETWEEN 17 AND 25
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
REACHING THE DIVIDE FRIGHT NIGHT.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ286>288.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277>280-
289-300.
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...LAVOIE
FIRE WEATHER...LAVOIE
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