024
FXUS65 KRIW 021650
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1050 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM AND DRY DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOME. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY (GREATER THAN A 3 OUT OF 4 CHANCE) FROM
ROCK SPRINGS THROUGH CASPER.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AND BREEZY FOR SOME ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ELEVATED
TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SOME
DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LITTLE TO ADD OR UPDATE REGARDING THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. HIGHS
FOR TODAY LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND MID TO LOW 70S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST TODAY
MAINLY ALONG THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM CASPER TO ROCK SPRINGS WHERE
WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
QUITE WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MID TO UPPER 70S WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FURTHER
SUPPORT THIS WITH 40-80% CHANCES OF HIGHS OF 80F OR MORE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY
WINDS MAY CREATE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK, SO IT BARES MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TODAY IS A DAY THAT MAKES ME FEEL A OLD (I AM, I FREELY ADMIT IT).
THIS IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF MY FIRST OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGY JOB, AT
A PRIVATE WEATHER COMPANY IN PENNSYLVANIA BACK IN 2000. THAT'S
RIGHT, 26 YEARS AGO. IT SEEMS LIKE YESTERDAY. AND THE REASON I AM
MENTIONING THIS IS BECAUSE THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT
DAY MANY YEARS AGO.
BACK ON THAT EARLY FALL DAY, IT WAS A NICE DAY, WITH A COOL MORNING,
A WARM AFTERNOON AND A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. AND, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA AND
BRING A WARM AND DRY DAY. SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS, LIKE GREYBULL,
WORLAND AND EVEN CASPER COULD MAKE A RUN AT 80. BUT, THERE WILL BE
ONE THING WE DIDN'T HAVE ON THAT DAY BACK IN 2000. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND BRING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED WIND CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF ROCK SPRINGS
THROUGH CASPER. MOST OF THIS AREA HAS A GREATER THAN 4 OUT OF 5
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY REMAINS BORDERLINE.
THE NBM ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW HUMIDITY GENERALLY REMAINS BETWEEN 16 AND
20 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA, AND WOULD LIKELY NOT BE FOR 3 HOURS.
SO, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. WE WILL MESSAGE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE BREEZIEST AREAS ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREA THOUGH.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. THE COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING SOME GUSTY BREEZES TO THE NORTHERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY, WITH GUSTS
PAST 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD DECREASE ON THIS DAY
THOUGH. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NORTHERN WYOMING. FURTHER
SOUTH, WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH
AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE HAVING SIMILAR HIGHS. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A
NICE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WIND.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY, BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW WITH A CAPITAL L
RIGHT NOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE IN
PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND TIMING OF THE WAVE THOUGH. WITH
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, MONDAY WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE WARM, WITH SOME MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SEEING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND EVEN MIDDLE 80S. MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK STILL LOOKS HAVE MAINLY DRY, ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
FLAT RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING A MORE CONCERNING DAY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. AND FOR
THOSE LOOKING FOR COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SNOW, YOU WILL LIKELY
BE WAITING FOR A WHILE LONGER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF
THE WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS, HIGHEST AT RKS/CPR
UP TO 25KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET AFTER 01-02Z WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING, LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD WYOMING WILL BRING A GUSTY
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ROCK SPRINGS THROUGH CASPER AS WELL
AS IN THE LEE OF THE ABSAROKAS. WITH HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THESE LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER
HUMIDITY SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
DISCUSSION...HATTINGS
AVIATION...LOWE
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS
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