262
FXUS65 KRIW 050839
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
239 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INDIAN SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
AND 80S.
- WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
H5 RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER, LEAVING MOST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION DRY AND VERY WARM. WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RIDGING IS IN PLACE, THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WIND GUSTS
UP NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE MAIN WIND CORRIDOR FROM RKS TO CPR.
WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, THIS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE, AND NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED THERE. THE
OTHER NOTE WITH THIS TROUGH IS THAT THERE'S ENOUGH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPARK SOME VIRGA SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF WY. CHANCES FOR ACTUAL
MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE VERY LOW (<5%).
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH RIDGING BEING THE MAIN
FEATURE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER, AS THE NORTHERN WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST QUICKLY, WITH
RELAXING GRADIENT. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING
VIRGA SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT AGAIN, DUE TO VERY
DRY SURFACE AIR, CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINS VERY LOW
(<5%).
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK REMAINS SIMILAR, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING UNDER THE RIDGE. THE NEXT CONSIDERABLE
SHIFT INT HE WEATHER PATTERN STILL POINTING TO A DEEP TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AS NOTED YESTERDAY,
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT QUICK BRINGING THIS TROUGH IN, WITH
BETTER CHANCES LEANING MORE TOWARD SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 941 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL
SITES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
INTO THE MORNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY. KBPI,
KCOD, KCPR, KLND, KPNA, AND KRKS MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 15-17Z APPROACHING 20-25KTS BEFORE LARGELY DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET MONDAY AS THE OTHER SITES REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY, COUPLED WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SFC HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SWEETWATER COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO NATRONA COUNTY THROUGH 6PM.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ279-280-289-300.
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...ROWE/ZAPRZALKA
FIRE WEATHER...STRAUB
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