040
FXUS65 KRIW 210730
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
130 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
- INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY, STRONGEST EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR RANGING FROM 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTS
LIKELY (80-90% CONFIDENCE).
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY FOR WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SPREADING TO EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONABLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL, REINFORCING SNOW CHANCES LOWERING TO 8-9KFT TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
IR CURRENTLY DEPICTS MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, EXTENDING FROM
BAJA CALIFORNIAN MOISTURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIAN COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN ITS EASTERN
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES A MORE OPEN
AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHWEST AND
DIVERGENT FLOW INTO THE CWA OUT OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS IS WHERE
THE STRONGER PVA ANOMALIES WILL OCCUR EXTENDING MOISTURE CONTENT
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PFJ WILL START TO DIP ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ALIGNED WITH THE MAIN LOW AS IT BECOMES MORE OPEN LATE
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING JET MAX PUSHING 120-130KTS. THIS
DEEPENS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM WITH INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA ABOUT 5 TO 7 MB ACROSS THE STATE, STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH 40 TO 55 MPH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE,
STRONGEST ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM SWEETWATER THROUGH
EASTERN FREMONT TO NATRONA COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 60 TO
65 MPH POSSIBLE (40-50%) FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH
PASS AND OUTER DRIVE OF CASPER MOUNTAIN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET FOR THIS PERIOD OF TIME, BUT
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND
SHIFTS OCCUR DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION WISE, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OUT OF
NORTHERN UTAH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING PUSHING NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MUCH OF THE QPF WILL
FALL WEST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN SNOW
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH FROPA ON FRIDAY,
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS TO 8-9KFT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE, AND THUS, IMPACTING THE BIGHORNS WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. MOUNTAIN PASSES, TO INCLUDE TETON, TOGWOTEE, AND SOUTH,
EXTENDING TO GRANITE/POWDER RIVER, WILL SEE THE IMPACTS AND
HAZARDS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTHEAST BY DAY'S END SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, TO INCLUDE THE WINDS, OF 6 INCHES OR MORE AROUND
60-70%. THE BIGHORNS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AROUND 30-40% FOR
LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF NOT GREAT CONFIDENCE, AND BEING FRIDAY FOR IMPACTS, IT HAS
BEEN DECIDED TO INCLUDE SURROUNDING OFFICES TO NOT ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS ROUND BUMPING TOTALS UP ONCE AGAIN
AND WILL NEED HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO DO SO MOVING FORWARD.
BEYOND THAT, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES POST FROPA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND TO FELL MORE
FALL-LIKE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVING TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF
OCTOBER. ANOTHER LOW EXTENDING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS
TO PUSH DOWN ALONG THE L/W PATTERN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY THAT WILL NEAR THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
NOT ONLY REINFORCE THIS COOLER AIR BUT CONTINUE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN THAT HAS A BETTER TRACK FOR STRONGER SNOW TOTALS. TOO
SOON TO JUDGE THE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THIS LOOKS
TO HAVE A BETTER TRACK FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG AND WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES AND ANY HEADLINE
ISSUANCE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS
FOR IMPACTS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A MID-CLOUD DECK ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TRAVERSES FAR WEST WYOMING, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY
OF KJAC, BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z/WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND COULD RETURN TO
THE FAR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURGE
OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES KRKS LATE IN THE PERIOD
LEADING TO LOWERING MID-CLOUD CEILINGS AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY. AT THE
MOMENT, IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION REMAINS SOUTH OF KRKS. A FEW TRICKY
SURFACE WIND FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
OFFERED BY HI-RES MODELS ON WHEN SOUTHERLY WIND MIXES AT KCPR AND
KRIW. HAVE TRIED TO STRIKE A BALANCE ON TIMING AND DIRECTION,
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR TRIES TO HOLD THE SOUTHERLIES AT BAY A FEW
ADDITIONAL HOURS AT KCPR AND ALTOGETHER AT KRIW. ON THE OTHER HAND,
KRKS SEES A 12-22KT SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOP BETWEEN 19Z-21Z/WEDNESDAY
AND PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZLC AND ZDV FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...CNJ
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