818
FXUS61 KRLX 141800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
100 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY. DRY BY LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY, SENDING THROUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. PRECEDING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE USHERED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO FAR HERE AT THE FORECAST OFFICE, OVER
ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT, WHICH
WILL AID IN CHIPPING AWAY AT THE DROUGHT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT
IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SINCE THE SUMMER. A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO YIELD BREEZY TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS BEFORE RELINQUISHING ITS GRIP DUE TO THE ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT.
ALSO CONTINUING TO MONITOR OUR HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLANTED IN SPOTS
SUCH AS MARLINTON AND SNOWSHOE. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN STILL, AND COULD
CAUSE SLICK PATHS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH AND IMPOSES NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
THEN TAP INTO LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING RAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS MAINTAINS A
STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY
AND EVEN BEYOND INTO THE START OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. ANOTHER FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
SQUEEZED OUT DURING THIS TIME, FALLING AS ALL RAIN IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY, OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW 40S/50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER RIDGETOPS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST TO START THIS PERIOD OFF. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL
AWAY FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BUT LEAVE SOME MOISTURE BEHIND
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG INVERSIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SURFACE MOST RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE REMAINING CHANCES
FOR ANYTHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR UPSLOPE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE (DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER) IN THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT THAT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SHORT FOR SATURDAY
MORNING.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRY OUT THE REST OF THE MOISTURE AND PROMOTE
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES START OFF
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD BUT WILL MODERATE BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. RECENTLY, THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL ON
BOARD FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING INTO OUR AREA, BUT NOW
THE EURO HAS JOINED IN, THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD BE A QUICK MOVER ALONG
ZONAL FLOW AND JUST SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARD OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOP UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW FOR NOW.
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR A SHORT PERIOD THE REST
OF MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY A BROAD SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BE FAIRLY
POTENT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO TRACK THIS FAIRLY WELL AND
THEREFORE HIGHER CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ALL RAIN
REGIME AND MODELS WANT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AROUND AND HAVE IT
ROTATE FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
AN ADVANCING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TIME OF WRITING, ALONG WITH
VSBYS OBSERVED BELOW 6 STATUTE MILES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS. A COLD FRONT PASSES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT, LOWERING RAIN CHANCES WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
DROPPING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR/LOW-END MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
PRE-FRONTAL GUSTY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25KTS, STRONGEST ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN GROW LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MIDST OF
FROPA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M L
BKW CONSISTENCY H L H L M L H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H L H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK
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