708
FXUS61 KRLX 151431
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
931 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAINTAINS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...
NO NECESSARY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
PERSISTS ON RADAR THIS MORNING, STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA SOCKED BENEATH THICK
STRATUS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, WARRANTING
NO NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS.
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AMPLE BLANKET OF
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE
COMMON, MORE SO OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WV, VA, AND NC
TODAY, PROVIDING THE LAST CHANCE FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING BEFORE
EXITING AWAY OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST, MAINTAINING LAKE-ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A THICK LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY AS THE WIND BACKS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, PERIODS OF DRIZZLE MAY STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE MID 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND INTO THE MID 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
* NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TURN MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY, THEN
DRY WEATHER WILL BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS BOTH HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING EASE EAST OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID 40S TO 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
THEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TURN
MILDER ON SUNDAY, REACHING 60S IN THE LOWLANDS AND MID 50S TO 60S
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE STILL CHILLY, SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN A GOOD TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINT:
* SLOW MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE WEEK.
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT WHILE A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AND PULLS A
FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS THEN PROJECTED TO PIVOT
NORTHEAST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INCOMING
SYSTEM SHOULD NUDGE THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
MID-WEEK. MOISTURE THEN LINGERS UNTIL LATE WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ARE SLOW TO DEPART.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT A
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT; HOWEVER, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO SNEAK INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 545 AM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT
MOST TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT OF WRITING. GENERAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT PKB, CKB, EKN AND BKW
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING MVFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT CRW AND HTS MAY BOUNCE TO IFR (900
FEET) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS MAY
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER PATCHY DRIZZLE.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME, TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H M H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ
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