820
FXUS61 KRLX 151755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
GLOOMY SKIES PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REMAIN SOCKED BENEATH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, USHERING IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
PROMOTE THE LOW HANGING CEILINGS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO OSCILLATE
FROM CURRENT READINGS OF THE 40S/50S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S (MOUNTAINS) AND 40S (LOWLANDS) OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE AROUND MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN HIGHTAILS ITSELF INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND, RELINQUISHING THE
LOW STRATUS AND SLOWLY ENCOURAGING A WARMING TREND TO TRANSPIRE
HEADING INTO THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS. LINGERING
EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME CUTOFF BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES VEER AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
CONTINUED DRY, AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE
TO OUR NORTH. THIS DISTURBANCE, MOVING ACROSS CANADA, MAY GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT OVERALL, MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED, AND IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE, IT SHOULD BE
QUICK HITTING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FINER
DETAILS OF COURSE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL, GENERAL
PATTERN STILL CALLS FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S./SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK. THE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH COLDER AIR, AND ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD DURING
THE PERIOD, OWING TO CAA AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED BENEATH THICK IFR STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON
AS PLUMES OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE ROLLS IN ALONG POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LITTLE TO NO CEILING IMPROVEMENT IS PROGGED
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
RECLAIMING INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS WILL THEN LIFT AND SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST QUIETER WEATHER. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST HEADING INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L M H H H M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L M M H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AFTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK
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