200
FXUS61 KRLX 160041
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
741 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
GLOOMY SKIES PERSIST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON. DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 740 PM FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN ROUTINE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AMENDMENTS, NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REMAIN SOCKED BENEATH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE MIDST OF A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, USHERING IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO
PROMOTE THE LOW HANGING CEILINGS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO OSCILLATE
FROM CURRENT READINGS OF THE 40S/50S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S (MOUNTAINS) AND 40S (LOWLANDS) OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING TAKE SHAPE AROUND MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS FURTHER OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN HIGHTAILS ITSELF INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND, RELINQUISHING THE
LOW STRATUS AND SLOWLY ENCOURAGING A WARMING TREND TO TRANSPIRE
HEADING INTO THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS. LINGERING
EMBEDDED PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME CUTOFF BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL STREAMLINES VEER AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
CONTINUED DRY, AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE
TO OUR NORTH. THIS DISTURBANCE, MOVING ACROSS CANADA, MAY GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT OVERALL, MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED, AND IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE, IT SHOULD BE
QUICK HITTING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FINER
DETAILS OF COURSE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL, GENERAL
PATTERN STILL CALLS FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S./SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK. THE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH COLDER AIR, AND ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD DURING
THE PERIOD, OWING TO CAA AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...
MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH POST-FRONTAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
UNTIL ABOUT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST WILL TAKE PLACE.THAT SAID, MVFR WILL BE PROMINENT AREA-
WIDE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING MORE SKEWED TO THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
BKN AND SCT MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LITTERING THE SKY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
OVERNIGHT; MORE STEADY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOSTLY CALM IN
THE LOWLAND VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AFTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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