385
FXUS61 KRLX 160748
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
GLOOMY SKIES PERSIST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 247 AM SATURDAY...
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY, RELAXING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROMOTING NEAR CALM WINDS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS LATER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WHICH HAS
TRAPPED LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE FORMING A VAST AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY FALL FROM SUCH CLOUD DECK
ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE SQUEEZES AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PERHAPS STAYING CLOUDY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
CONTINUED DRY, AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST
ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY HOWEVER FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE
TO OUR NORTH. THIS DISTURBANCE, MOVING ACROSS CANADA, MAY GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT OVERALL, MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED, AND IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE, IT SHOULD BE
QUICK HITTING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FINER
DETAILS OF COURSE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT OVERALL, GENERAL
PATTERN STILL CALLS FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S./SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION, EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK. THE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH COLDER AIR, AND ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD DURING
THE PERIOD, OWING TO CAA AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1228 AM SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS TRAPPED LAKE-ENHANCED
MOISTURE INTO A LOW STRATUS LAYER AFFECTING WESTERN TERMINALS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS, AND EASTERN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TERMINALS
WITH IFR CEILINGS. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 21Z
SATURDAY WITH BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LITTERING THE
SKY.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
OVERNIGHT; MORE STEADY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR CALM IN
THE LOWLAND VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 11/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L H H H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H M M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY L H M M H M H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AFTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ
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