422
FXUS61 KRLX 161429
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
929 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
GLOOMY SKIES PERSIST INTO THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 925 AM SATURDAY...
INCREASED SKY COVER TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. WITH A STRONG INVERSION OVERHEAD, IT WILL TAKE
QUITE A WHILE TO START SCATTERING OUT, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THIS
EVENING. ONCE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT, ADDITIONAL BKN-OVC
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS
AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE THE
VALLEYS.
AS OF 247 AM SATURDAY...
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY, RELAXING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROMOTING NEAR CALM WINDS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST PROVIDING VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. THIS LATER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WHICH HAS
TRAPPED LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE FORMING A VAST AREA OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY FALL FROM SUCH CLOUD DECK
ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE SQUEEZES AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT CLEARING SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
PERHAPS STAYING CLOUDY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* QUIET AND MILD TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
* MOSTLY DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, DESPITE THE ENCROACHMENT OF A
FRONT.
AN UPPER RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA, RESULTING IN A DRY CONCLUSION TO THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AS A
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
DESCENDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY; HOWEVER, IT IS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE ITS
PROGRESS IS HALTED, AND THEN REVERSED, IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. WHILE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS FRONT, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS AREN'T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES HOVER ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGING FROM 50S TO MID 60S AND MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* SYSTEM BRINGS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WORK WEEK.
* RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
* WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEEK, AT LEAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
A SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BUOYS A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THEN WARM, MOIST AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A COLD
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT REINFORCING FRONT SWEEP THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE
THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO SPIRAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS
BECOME STRONG AND TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND BEHIND THE LOW AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS: THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN UNTIL THE INJECTION OF COLDER AIR OCCURS MID WEEK. THIS
SHOULD FACILITATE THE INTRODUCTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN LIKELY TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOWLANDS: RAIN PERSISTS AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIGHT MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE IN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS EARLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 551 AM SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS, TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 15Z. WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER 5,000 FEET CLOUD
DECK, WHILE EKN, AND BKW MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
15Z.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY LIGHT OR NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ
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