108
FXUS61 KRLX 170533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 813 PM SATURDAY...
EXTENDED LOW CLOUD COVER A FEW MORE HOURS AS MODELS AND LOWER-
LEVEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING IT WILL HOLD INTO THE NIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ASOS/AWOS TERMINALS SUCH AS KCMH,
KSYM, AND KSJS TO OUR WEST ARE STILL REPORTING LOW-LEVEL
OVERCAST; KCVG THOUGH IS REPORTING CLEAR CONDITIONS. THAT SAID,
EXPECTING TO HOLD ONTO THIS LOW-LEVEL DECK FOR A BIT LONGER
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDES COMPLETELY.
STAGGERED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUITE AS FAST, AS A RESULT
OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LAKE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BENEATH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON, ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
TONIGHT REPLACED BY THIN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARED ENERGY JET
MOVING OVERHEAD. WITH LIGHT WINDS, MOIST GROUND, AND AT LEAST
MODESTLY EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING, SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF CLOUD
COVER MAY HELP LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE CONTINGENT ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN
CLEAR OUT, FOR NOW THE FORECAST REFLECTS NEAR FULL CLEARING OF THE
LOW LEVEL DECK BY MIDNIGHT.
ONCE ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING, FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY DRY AIR
OVERHEAD UP THROUGH AROUND H250. WITH SUNSHINE ONLY FILTERED BY HIGH
CIRRUS, DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID-
NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SAILING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER TO OPEN UP THE WORK WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT ENCROACHING DISTURBANCE.
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORIGINATING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. ATTACHED TO THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, YIELDING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGHER TO THE
SOUTH IN THE COALFIELDS OF CLOSE TO HALF AN INCH.
A WARMING TREND SUPPLIED BY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETAIN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 50S ALONG THE SPINE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* STRONG SIGNAL FOR A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING A BURST
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
* CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING AS WE OPEN UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
WILL BE IN TANDEM WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW SAGGING
DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, AND WILL SERVE AS
AN AIDING FORCE BEHIND AN ACTIVE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BARRELS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND WILL FOSTER AN ENHANCEMENT OF MOISTURE, A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND A BLAST OF COLDER AIR. BEFORE THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN, HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON, AND COULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS. AS LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES GROW COLDER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A
TRANSITION OVER TO MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRANSPIRE,
AND COULD TRICKLE DOWN AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WOULD CHANGE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BACK TO ALL DRAIN QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT REMAINS
AS SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A PLETHORA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST MINOR
IMPACTS OF THE WINTER VARIETY FOR ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN
3,000FT AGL, WITH WPC PAINTING A 60-70% CHANCE OF OBSERVING
IMPACTS ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOTS OF QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS
UPCOMING SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THOSE LOCATED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS CERTAINLY BEARS MONITORING OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT HANDFUL OF DAYS AS MODELS COME CLOSER TO A
CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1228 AM SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOW MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH PKB AND CKB BEING THE LAST
TO CLEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
UPPER LEVEL THIN CLOUDS PASSING BY. OTHERWISE, NEAR CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT ARE STILL WET FROM RECENT RAINS. THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
AFFECT EKN FIRST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAS REACHED THEIR DEWPOINT AT
THE MOMENT OF WRITING. FOG ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND VA. IT STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT HTS. INSTEAD, BELIEVE
VCFG AND/OR BCFG WILL PREVAIL AT HTS AND CRW. PERHAPS MOST SITES
MAY GET A MORNING SURPRISE WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR UNDER
DENSE FOG EMERGE RIGHT DURING SUNRISE, EXPECT FOR BKW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT ALL FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY 13- 14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE CALM FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT; BECOMING LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FORMATION OF DENSE FOG MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 11/17/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M L H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE MID-WEEK WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ
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