397
FXUS61 KRLX 171723
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES TUESDAY
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION IN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS WE CATCH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITING PA. COULD SEE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO THESE LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN, BUT ANY COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. COULD ALSO SEE A STRAY SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE
FROM THIS DECK TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WILL CODE UP SOME SCATTERED NON-
ACCUMULATING SHOWERS. DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD STILL YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
NORTH OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* MOSTLY DRY MONDAY, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
* MILD TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
AND PULLS A FRONT DOWN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. WHILE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM LIFTS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN
DIRECTS A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH DAILY
HIGHS AVERAGING 50S FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND 60S FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
* WINDS BECOME STRONG ALONG AND BEHIND A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.
* RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE LOWLANDS MAINLY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN TAKES ITS
TIME MEANDERING EAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE UPPER
TROUGHING LINGERS OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT, THEN A BRIEF LULL COULD OCCUR BEFORE MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MID WEEK FRONT CROSSES,
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 TO 40 MPH IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND REACH 25 TO 30 MPH
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE MOUNTAINS, A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
A 60 TO 70 PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER TO CAUSE MINOR
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA, BUT ONLY A 20 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD OF
MODERATE IMPACTS.
ALTHOUGH RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
LOWLANDS, SNOW COULD PERIODICALLY MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING HOURS LATE IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HOWEVER,
REGARDING EXTENT OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM SUNDAY...
SCT-BKN CIRRUS PERSISTS UNDER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING
PRIOR TO A VFR LOWER DECK MOVING IN TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT CHANCES
SEEM TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS LOWER CLOUDS BUILD IN AND WILL CODE UP
VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT ANY AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NIL.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND LIGHT MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP
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