092
FXUS61 KRLX 181839
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. COLDER AFTER
WEDNESDAY YIELDS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A COLD FRONT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS, RANGING
FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH REMAINS
UNDER 20 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT ARE A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO THE RAIN TIMING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AN INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DIG FARTHER
SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, INDUCING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES SO, ALONG WITH COLDER AIR, AND GUSTY
WINDS GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA PARTICULARLY AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH ALL SNOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW ROTATES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WE MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THURSDAY, WITH IT KICKING BACK OFF AGAIN LATER
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, OR IN THE VERY LEAST HAVE LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE, AS
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LOOK TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 136 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
PIVOT NORTH, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TO ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW TAKING HOLD, WITH A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THINKING THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS GOING TO BE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WATCH
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/THOSE MOST PRONE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS
FOR NOW, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE
ADDED AS TIME PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...
SOME LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR
THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
PROVIDING SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY OR MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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