113
FXUS61 KRLX 190719
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH RAIN. TURNING COLDER AFTER
WEDNESDAY YIELDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 PM MONDAY...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PLENTIFUL VIRGA FALLING OUT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK INTO A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER THIS
EVENING. SOME VERY PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A COLD FRONT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS, RANGING
FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH REMAINS
UNDER 20 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT ARE A BIT TRICKY
DUE TO THE RAIN TIMING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO WV. AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTS EXIT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, TAKING MOST OF THE BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION AWAY. HOWEVER, A NORTHWEST PATTERN DEVELOPS, IDEAL FOR
LAKE-ENHANCE MOISTURE TO REACH OUR AREA.
GUIDANCE BRING THE H850 FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE MINUS 5C LINE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
MEANS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING UNDER A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE, TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING, WILL KEEP STRATIFORMED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
ALL RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY
BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. WPC 24-HOUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES SHOWS 70
PERCENT, AND 40 PERCENT FOR ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE OF MAXIMUM H500 VORTICITY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS 7C, AND CHANCES FOR A WINTRY
MIX TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3,000
FEET, AND EVEN EXCEEDING 8 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ENDING
FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WITH 70 PERCENT FOR EXCEEDING 45 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPSLOPE FORCING ENHANCING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS STARTING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FINALLY EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM MONDAY...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A LITTLE FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM BENEATH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND COULD IMPACT ONE OR TWO TERMINALS BEFORE
DAYBREAK; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN FOG EXTENT REMAINS LOW.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN SPREADS
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOULD TAKE HOLD
FOR THE AFTERNOON, THEN CEILINGS REMAIN SUB-VFR INTO THE NIGHT,
WITH IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DETERIORATE AS RAIN TRAVERSES THE AREA.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 5-12KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN TUESDAY COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 11/19/24
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB
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