130
FXUS61 KRLX 191300
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
800 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. TURNING COLDER AFTER
WEDNESDAY YIELDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 750 AM TUESDAY...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, SO HAVE
TWEAKED THE POPS TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR AND MESO
MODEL TIMING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM MINOR
TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT
THIS TIME.
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY.
* TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABNORMALLY MILD TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE STEERED TOWARDS THE CWA FROM THE WEST TODAY,
WHILE THE PARENT LOW HOVERS ALONG THE CANADA AND MINNESOTA/DAKOTA
BORDER. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS PROJECTED
TO SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY
MID-MORNING. RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE REST
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGS
BEHIND, BUT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO TRANSIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
BETWEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT, QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF AN INCH
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
ABNORMALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 60 TO 70 DEGREES IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT,
LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO 50S.
SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO WV. AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTS EXIT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, TAKING MOST OF THE BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION AWAY. HOWEVER, A NORTHWEST PATTERN DEVELOPS, IDEAL FOR
LAKE-ENHANCE MOISTURE TO REACH OUR AREA.
GUIDANCE BRING THE H850 FREEZING LEVEL ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE MINUS 5C LINE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
MEANS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING UNDER A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE, TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING, WILL KEEP STRATIFORMED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
ALL RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS MAY
BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. WPC 24-HOUR
PROBABILISTIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES SHOWS 70
PERCENT, AND 40 PERCENT FOR ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN 4 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 219 AM TUESDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE OF MAXIMUM H500 VORTICITY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS 7C, AND CHANCES FOR A WINTRY
MIX TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3,000
FEET, AND EVEN EXCEEDING 8 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ENDING
FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WITH 70 PERCENT FOR EXCEEDING 45 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPSLOPE FORCING ENHANCING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS STARTING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FINALLY EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD PROVIDING LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 610 AM TUESDAY...
DURING THE DAY, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
RAIN SPREADS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MVFR, AND SOME
IFR, VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN TODAY'S PRECIPITATION,
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS
CEILINGS LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION MAY DIMINISH IN THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT,
WHILE SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS, MIST, AND LINGERING SHOWERS,
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5-12KTS TODAY, WITH
A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN
ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXTENT OF BR AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN BY MID-WEEK,
AND EVENTUALLY IN MOUNTAIN SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB
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