271
FXUS61 KRLX 200800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COLDER AIR BY THE END OF THE DAY. AN
UPPER AIR SYSTEM/UPSLOPE BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERS TO THE WEST.
DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW
WILL SWEEP BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN COVERAGE SWIFTLY TAPERS OFF IN ITS WAKE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE USHERED
INTO THE AREA, WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE END OF
THE DAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE THEN SPREADS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY, THEN
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IS MORE LIKELY
TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES, THEN
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE MID 20S TO 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING H850 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -6C. AT THE SURFACE, A
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY
REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE INCONVENIENCE WHILE
DRIVING UNDER SLUSHY ROADS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER, ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE FORCING IS
ANTICIPATED UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH PERHAPS
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW, WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
EXPECT A 2-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW 100% CHANCE TO EXCEED 4
INCHES, AND 77% CHANCE TO EXCEED 8 INCHES ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 70-80% FOR +4 INCHES OF SNOW,
AND ABOUT 50% FOR +6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. DUE TO
STRONG UPSLOPE EFFECTS, AND THE EXTENT OF THE SNOWFALL, ALMOST
DOUBLED THESE AMOUNTS TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEREFORE, WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO WARNINGS, TO
INCLUDED ALL OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH, AND SOUTHEASTERN NICHOLAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, WILL INCLUDE
SURROUNDING COUNTIES THAT MEET CRITERIA UNDER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 214 PM TUESDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BEGIN SUNDAY
AS UPPER- LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND MID- LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FOR SOME SUNSHINE
BY LATE SUNDAY.
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING EITHER LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL SUSTAIN
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MOST TERMINALS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. LOW CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN, WITH 20-30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY EASE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE IN FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/20/24
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L H L L L L M H H L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H L M H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IN
PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034-039-040-515>519-521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB
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