289
FXUS61 KRLX 201751
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1251 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THEN
BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 915 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED SKY COVER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO
REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING, WHILE LIGHT, SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER
THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERS TO THE WEST.
DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW
WILL SWEEP BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN COVERAGE SWIFTLY TAPERS OFF IN ITS WAKE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE USHERED
INTO THE AREA, WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS BY THE END OF
THE DAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE THEN SPREADS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY, THEN
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION THAT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IS MORE LIKELY
TO TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES, THEN
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE MID 20S TO 30S.
SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING H850 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -6C. AT THE SURFACE, A
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY
REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS PRODUCING A MIX OF SNOW
AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE INCONVENIENCE WHILE
DRIVING UNDER SLUSHY ROADS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER, ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE FORCING IS
ANTICIPATED UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH PERHAPS
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW, WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
EXPECT A 2-DAY PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW 100% CHANCE TO EXCEED 4
INCHES, AND 77% CHANCE TO EXCEED 8 INCHES ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT.
24-HOUR WPC PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 70-80% FOR +4 INCHES
OF SNOW, AND ABOUT 50% FOR +6 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
FOR BOTH DAYS, TOTALING 8 TO 12 INCHES IN TWO DAYS. DUE TO STRONG
UPSLOPE EFFECTS, AND THE EXTENT OF THE SNOWFALL, ALMOST DOUBLED
THESE AMOUNTS TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEREFORE, WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO WARNINGS, TO
INCLUDED ALL OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH, AND SOUTHEASTERN NICHOLAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, WILL INCLUDE
SURROUNDING COUNTIES THAT MEET CRITERIA UNDER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 318 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING OF SHORTLY AFTER.
A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA. MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE IFR RESTRICTIONS. OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS, EXPECT MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT,
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING,
CAUSING MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L M H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H M M M L L M M M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IN
PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034-039-040-515>519-521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
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