871
FXUS61 KRLX 210746
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY SUNDAY. NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AS OF 600 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST EXITED THE AREA TOWARD THE EAST AND
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO CALM DOWN A BIT, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST NEAR
THE CHARLESTON AND THE TRI-STATE AREAS. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT
AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT TO WHERE WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEAR
SKIES FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT BEFORE MORE CLOUDS FILL IN FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS, COULD POSSIBLY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. COULD
SEE A BURST OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE CLEARING
ARRIVES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A LOBE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING. THE LOWLANDS WILL GENERALLY TO TOO
WARM FOR SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER TO ACCUMULATE, WITH UP
TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUB-FREEZING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 5C, SLIGHTLY WARM UP TO
0C UNDER STRONG (40 KNOTS) NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE EFFECTS
ADD TO THE EQUATION PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE ELEVATIONS
3,000 FEET AND HIGHER.
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S,
TRANSITIONING SNOW INTO ALL RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, 1
INCH OF SNOW OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY, CUTTING OFF THE LAKE-MOISTURE CONNECTION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE, WINTER HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY PROVIDING DRIER
WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY MONDAY. BECOMING WARMER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW OF THE VALLEYS, BUT EXTENT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MVFR AS LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD INTO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING, THEN AN MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK
PERSISTS - ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION - THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS ALSO BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY, WITH 15-20 KT
GUSTS ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOWLANDS, WHILE 20 TO 35 KT GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BOTH SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING
SNOW ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/21/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS, IN
PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ033-034-039-040-515>517-519-521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ518-520-522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB
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