505
FXUS61 KRLX 150809
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST SETS UP A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. ALL RAIN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS. MORE RAIN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 309 AM SUNDAY...
STALLED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST REINTRODUCES
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STOUT HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER QUEBEC
SPAWNS RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS,
WITH COOL ENE FLOW CREATING COLD-AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE A SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT, BUT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500 FEET. A TROUBLESOME WARM NOSE IS PRESENT
ON NAM12 SOUNDINGS FOR BECKLEY, LEWISBURG AND SNOWSHOE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ABOVE 2,500 FEET TO KEEP A MIX
OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT, DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BELOW 2,500
FEET WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING
TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SPECIFICALLY, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY
WILL BE IN THE 20S; LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS LIKE BECKLEY AND ELKINS WILL BE RIGHT
ON THE LINE BETWEEN 32F AND 33F, SO THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SURFACES. A CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ICE ACCRETION WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATION BASED WITH ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3,500 FEET SEEING BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.20" INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET COULD SEE AROUND A A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE OR HIGHER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH
1-3" INCHES EXPECTED. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ABOVE 3,500 FEET. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED IN RESPONSE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. MODELS
STILL DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STARTING TO
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EFFECTING OUR AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 143 AM SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT
~10Z-12Z. A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING THIS MORNING AHEAD OF IT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ONLY SEE RAIN, BUT LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY ABOVE
2,500 FEET ELEVATION, WILL LIKELY SEE FZRA AND SN. BKW AND EKN
WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA, PL OR SN
COULD OCCUR BETWEEN ~10Z AND ~12Z WHEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
AROUND FREEZING. MVFR AND IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
MVFR CIGS FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
BY ABOUT ~09Z. ELSEWHERE, MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN BY ABOUT ~16Z
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE
IFR CIGS OR LOWER FORM ABOUT THE SAME TIME. THE CENTRAL
LOWLANDS, INCLUDING CRW, WILL LIKELY KEEP VFR CIGS CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BE
BREEZY OR GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20KTS
AND 30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES FROM ~06Z THROUGH ~20Z.
EXPECTING A SSE LLWS COMPONENT ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 40KTS AND 50KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF DETERIORATING CIGS AND VIS MAY ALSO VARY. WIND
SPEEDS AND LLWS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/15/24
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H L M H L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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