243
FXUS61 KRLX 151444
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
944 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST SETS UP A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY. ALL RAIN EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS. MORE RAIN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 940 AM SUNDAY...
SLOWED RISE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY PER CURRENT TRENDS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS, THIS AND SLOWER WARMING OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATIOS AND AMOUNTS. THESE
UPDATES WERE THEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, ALTHOUGH NO CHANGES TO THE HAZARD
LEVELS, TIMING OR PLACEMENT WERE NEEDED.
WE HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION YET ALTHOUGH,
AFTER A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE, FREEZING RAIN HAD CHANGED TO
SNOW AT SNOWSHOE SUGGESTING THE WARM NOSE ALOFT HAD INDEED
COLLAPSE TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON SATURATION OF THAT LAYER.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE THE WARNING
AND ADVISORY AREAS.
AS OF 527 AM SUNDAY...
ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE COUNTIES OF TYLER, DODDRIDGE, LEWIS,
HARRISON, TAYLOR, UPSHUR, BARBOUR, AND NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH FOR
POCKETS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES TO DROP AROUND OR
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. RAIN IS MOVING INTO THESE COUNTIES
SO SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RISE THROUGH
THE MORNING, BUT INITIAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 7AM TO 8AM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR FURTHER HEADLINES.
AS OF 309 AM SUNDAY...
STALLED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST REINTRODUCES
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STOUT HIGH PRESSURE DOME OVER QUEBEC
SPAWNS RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS,
WITH COOL ENE FLOW CREATING COLD-AIR DAMMING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE A SOAKING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT, BUT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,500 FEET. A TROUBLESOME WARM NOSE IS PRESENT
ON NAM12 SOUNDINGS FOR BECKLEY, LEWISBURG AND SNOWSHOE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ABOVE 2,500 FEET TO KEEP A MIX
OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT, DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BELOW 2,500
FEET WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING
TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. SPECIFICALLY, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY
WILL BE IN THE 20S; LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. LOCATIONS LIKE BECKLEY AND ELKINS WILL BE RIGHT
ON THE LINE BETWEEN 32F AND 33F, SO THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SURFACES. A CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ICE ACCRETION WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATION BASED WITH ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3,500 FEET SEEING BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.20" INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,000 FEET COULD SEE AROUND A A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE OR HIGHER. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO POCAHONTAS COUNTY AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH
1-3" INCHES EXPECTED. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ABOVE 3,500 FEET. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN HOISTED IN RESPONSE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STARTING
TO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EFFECTING OUR AREA. MUCH
COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 633 AM SUNDAY...
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE
RAIN BUT LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY ABOVE 2,500 FEET
ELEVATION, WILL LIKELY SEE FZRA AND SN. BKW AND EKN COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA, PL, OR SN OCCUR IN THE ~12Z WINDOW, WHEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. MVFR AND IFR VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING, CERTAINLY BY
~16Z-18Z WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20KTS AND 30KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AT CRW, BKW, AND PKB THIS MORNING. IT THEN
SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH TO EKN BY THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN ~18Z-20Z.
EXPECTING A SSE LLWS COMPONENT ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 40KTS AND 50KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY VARY FROM FORECAST; I.E. BKW AND
EKN RECEIVE MORE IMPACTFUL FZRA OR SN. TIMING OF DETERIORATING
CIGS AND VIS MAY ALSO VARY. WIND SPEEDS AND LLWS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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