114
FXUS61 KRLX 151847
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST MAINTAINS A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
INTO TONIGHT, ALL RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. MORE RAIN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
\
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
A STOUT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE WEST,
MAINTAIN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP, WITH COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES,
AND A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL FINALLY WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SLEET, FROM THE WINTRY POTPOURRI
OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THAT AREA.
BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WERE LIKELY LIMITING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS AND ICE ACCRETION, ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE AN
ESTIMATE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE LATTER, WITH WEB CAMS
SHOWING MODEST DROOPING OF TREE BRANCHES. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWED
LARGE SNOWFLAKES AT TIMES AT SNOWSHOE, SUGGESTING THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WAS STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE SURFACE LOW
FILLS, AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY AND THE WARM
NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM FURTHER. THIS WILL END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST, LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE LOWLANDS, AND TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY NARROWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND FOR ICE ACCRETION TONIGHT, AS THE
AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WARM SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THERE
CONTINUE TO BE BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE END TIMES FOR
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
MONDAY DAWNS CLOUDY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A PERSISTENT
SURFACE BASED INVERSION.
COMING OUT OF THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL DROUGHT, IT IS ALMOST
SURREAL TO TYPE THAT RAIN WILL MOVE RIGHT BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, FROM ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, AND THEN
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM, ITS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. NO
WINTER WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN OR CONVECTIVE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT YET ANOTHER STOUT RAIN IS ON TAP.
WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE IN THE MOUNTAINS, ABOVE FREEZING
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FLAT-LINE TONIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AND MEAGER DECEMBER SOLAR INSOLATION AMID CLOUD COVER
TAKE OUT BOTH INVERSIONS, AND TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO
THE 40S WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY, LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
COULD ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STARTING
TO AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EFFECTING OUR AREA. MUCH
COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THAT FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AT
TIMES, MAINLY ON VISIBILITY, INTO TONIGHT. EVEN AS THE RAIN
ENDS, CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING ON ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
POSSIBLY LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BACK DOWN TO MVFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, 18Z MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION CODED FOR THE TAF SITES,
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES JUST TO
THE EAST OF EKN AND BKW, ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES, INTO TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT FROM THE SOUTH LATER MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT EKN THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, DESPITE THE RAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY
VARY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AND LLWS COULD
OCCUR AT OTHER SITES AND BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
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