794
FXUS61 KRLX 151852
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STOUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST MAINTAINS A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
INTO TONIGHT, ALL RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. MORE RAIN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
A STOUT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE WEST,
MAINTAIN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP, WITH COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES,
AND A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL FINALLY WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SLEET, FROM THE WINTRY POTPOURRI
OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THAT AREA.
BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WERE LIKELY LIMITING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS AND ICE ACCRETION, ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE AN
ESTIMATE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE LATTER, WITH WEB CAMS
SHOWING MODEST DROOPING OF TREE BRANCHES. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWED
LARGE SNOWFLAKES AT TIMES AT SNOWSHOE, SUGGESTING THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WAS STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE SURFACE LOW
FILLS, AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY AND THE WARM
NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM FURTHER. THIS WILL END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST, LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE LOWLANDS, AND TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY NARROWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND FOR ICE ACCRETION TONIGHT, AS THE
AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WARM SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THERE
CONTINUE TO BE BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE END TIMES FOR
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
MONDAY DAWNS CLOUDY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A PERSISTENT
SURFACE BASED INVERSION.
COMING OUT OF THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL DROUGHT, IT IS ALMOST
SURREAL TO TYPE THAT RAIN WILL MOVE RIGHT BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, FROM ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, AND THEN
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM, ITS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. NO
WINTER WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN OR CONVECTIVE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT YET ANOTHER STOUT RAIN IS ON TAP.
WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE IN THE MOUNTAINS, ABOVE FREEZING
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FLAT-LINE TONIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AND MEAGER DECEMBER SOLAR INSOLATION AMID CLOUD COVER
TAKE OUT BOTH INVERSIONS, AND TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO
THE 40S WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
A GULF ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME QUICKLY EXITS EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TAPER ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION DOWN TO
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY YIELDS FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
MOSTLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY. AS
SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
OVERHEAD COOLS THE MID-LEVEL COLUMN, COULD SEE A MODICUM OF
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY RELEASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING THE -20C ISOTHERM, BUT WILL KEEP A
THUNDERSTORM FREE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES
PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE NORTHERLY SHIFTING
THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD FRIDAY DAYTIME TIMING FOR THE NEXT
QUICK HITTING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ISN'T OFFERING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AT
TIMES, MAINLY ON VISIBILITY, INTO TONIGHT. EVEN AS THE RAIN
ENDS, CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING ON ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
POSSIBLY LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES BACK DOWN TO MVFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, 18Z MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION CODED FOR THE TAF SITES,
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES JUST TO
THE EAST OF EKN AND BKW, ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SLOPES, INTO TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT FROM THE SOUTH LATER MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT EKN THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, DESPITE THE RAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY
VARY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT AS FORECAST. GUSTY
WINDS MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AND LLWS COULD
OCCUR AT OTHER SITES AND BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM
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