286
FXUS61 KRLX 160332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1032 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A CROSSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH STOUT HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST MAINTAINS A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY TONIGHT, TAPERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MORE RAIN MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1010 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN THIS EVENING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND N. OHIO VALLEY, WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. ISO LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVELS UP TO
H850, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES), A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LINGERING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING COURTESY OF SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. TEMPERATURES THERE ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY WARM
OVERNIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN FOR ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING (~
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM). DID SLOW THE TRANSITION A BIT BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. GIVEN SUCH, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
TO THE WINTER HEADLINES IN POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES WITH THIS
UPDATE. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW/SLEET REMAINS
POSSIBLE, WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL WARM, WITH MID 30S EXPECTED BY DAWN. TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 40S
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT UNDER A LOWERING BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK.
WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN ANY BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 645 PM SUNDAY...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RALEIGH,
FAYETTE, NICHOLAS, AND WEBSTER COUNTIES WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THERE. THE WINTER
HEADLINES FOR POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
A STOUT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DAMPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE WEST,
MAINTAIN A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP, WITH COLD AIR
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES,
AND A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL FINALLY WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SLEET, FROM THE WINTRY POTPOURRI
OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THAT AREA.
BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WERE LIKELY LIMITING SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS AND ICE ACCRETION, ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE AN
ESTIMATE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF THE LATTER, WITH WEB CAMS
SHOWING MODEST DROOPING OF TREE BRANCHES. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOWED
LARGE SNOWFLAKES AT TIMES AT SNOWSHOE, SUGGESTING THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WAS STILL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, THE SURFACE LOW
FILLS, AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY AND THE WARM
NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM FURTHER. THIS WILL END THE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST, LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE LOWLANDS, AND TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY NARROWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND FOR ICE ACCRETION TONIGHT, AS THE
AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WARM SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THERE
CONTINUE TO BE BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE END TIMES FOR
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT
APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
MONDAY DAWNS CLOUDY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A PERSISTENT
SURFACE BASED INVERSION.
COMING OUT OF THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL DROUGHT, IT IS ALMOST
SURREAL TO TYPE THAT RAIN WILL MOVE RIGHT BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, FROM ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION IN CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, AND THEN
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM, ITS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. NO
WINTER WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN OR CONVECTIVE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT YET ANOTHER STOUT RAIN IS ON TAP.
WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE IN THE MOUNTAINS, ABOVE FREEZING
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FLAT-LINE TONIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AND MEAGER DECEMBER SOLAR INSOLATION AMID CLOUD COVER
TAKE OUT BOTH INVERSIONS, AND TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO
THE 40S WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
A GULF ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME QUICKLY EXITS EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TAPER ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION DOWN TO
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY YIELDS FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY
EVENING AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
MOSTLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY. AS
SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
OVERHEAD COOLS THE MID-LEVEL COLUMN, COULD SEE A MODICUM OF
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY RELEASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING THE -20C ISOTHERM, BUT WILL KEEP A
THUNDERSTORM FREE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES
PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE NORTHERLY SHIFTING
THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD FRIDAY DAYTIME TIMING FOR THE NEXT
QUICK HITTING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ISN'T OFFERING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOWLANDS AT THIS POINT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A
WINTRY MIX LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. IN
TERMS OF RESTRICTIONS, THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL
LOWERING INTO MVFR CIGS AREA-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. BRIEF MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH MVFR/IFR/LIFR LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY FOG CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT GIVEN
ANY BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS QUITE LOW, BUT COULD RESULT IN MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IF IT WERE TO FORM AT A TERMINAL.
A DRY START ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AREA-WIDE, BUT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL WV AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF IFR
ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL VARY, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM VFR/MVFR
AT CRW/CKB/EKN, TO MVFR/IFR AT BKW/HTS/PKB.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT MONDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY VEERING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
SPOTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. CEILINGS AT CRW/CKB/EKN
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MAY END UP HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L M H M H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ524.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW
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