545
FXUS61 KRLX 161801
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
101 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
MORE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. DRY TUESDAY, MORE ACTIVE BY MIDWEEK WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CLOSING OUT THE WEEK. VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...
MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MORE BROKEN NATURE
OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA, BUT OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WITH A GOOD
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TODAY, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY COULD BE SOUTH OF THE
RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HIT 60 DEGREES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, MOST
AREAS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
TUESDAY SHOWCASES MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER WITH ZONAL FLOW ABOVE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S TO MID
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
RAIN AND MAYBE A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTING BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.00" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH IN OHIO OR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COULD STAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE AREA AND A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. NONETHELESS, EXPECTING THE
MOUNTAINS TO SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO DRY US OUT.
SKIES WILL STILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
NNW FLOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL LAKE-EFFECT MOISTURE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN BEST ON
PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BEHIND COLD FRONTS AS OF LATE. AT
THIS POINT THOUGH, FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP A
STRONG FETCH FROM OCCURRING. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 20S AND 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE A WINTRY MESS.
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY MORNING AND
EVENING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH A FRIDAY MORNING ARRIVAL WITH THE EURO BEING THE QUICKEST
TO PULL IT OUT AND THE CANADIAN BEING A BIT SLOWER. WILL MENTION
SOMETHING IN THE HWO ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM MONDAY...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA, AND SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INTERMITTENT
BREAKS TO VFR OR DECREASES TO IFR AT TIMES POSSIBLE. FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO
CEILINGS, BUT WE COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS, OR MVFR/IFR DUE TO MIST/FOG AT TIMES, AS WELL (THE
LATTER ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR BKW). AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, SKIES WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND CLEAR
BEHIND IT BETWEEN LATE NIGHT AND MID-MORNING. BKW, HOWEVER, MAY
HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS UNTIL CLOSE TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS TODAY COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK
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