241
FXUS61 KRLX 170049
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
749 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
MORE RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. DRY TUESDAY, MORE ACTIVE BY MIDWEEK WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CLOSING OUT THE WEEK. VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LINE STRETCHED FROM GREENUP COUNTY DOWN TO
WYOMING COUNTY, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND BEHIND THIS IT IS
MOSTLY CLEAR, SO THE LATEST POP FORECAST DOES REFLECT THAT
GENERAL CLEARING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SW'LY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL TURN
MORE W'LY BEHIND IT AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. SKIES ALSO
SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO SOME OF OUR
OHIO LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S BEFORE
SUNRISE. AREAS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER LIKELY STAY IN THE 40S, AS
THEY CLEAR TOO CLOSE TO SUNRISE, OR NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WON'T BE A VERY STRONG FRONT, AND WITH THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TOMORROW, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECOVER BACK CLOSE TO
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. THE LIKELY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SE OHIO
COUNTIES, AND PERHAPS PART OF THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AROUND
PARKERSBURG, WHICH COULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN
SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MOST OF US, ALONG WITH A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00" FOR MOST, WHICH
WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY WITH RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION FROM THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER DEEP 500-MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INTENSE COOL-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD WEATHER AND
LIGHT SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. DRY, BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BRINGING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
REGION AS IT DOES SO (IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE FRONT).
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE, DRY CONDITIONS BUILD IN AREA-WIDE AMID
QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES THAT PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
VFR/MVFR CIGS AT PRESENT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SO MVFR
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME IFR FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, IMPACTING BKW AND POTENTIALLY EKN. BRIEF MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AT PRESENT WILL VEER TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR WEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THEN
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT, 15 TO 25 KTS, IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT. FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, LLWS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
AT SOME TERMINALS AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD BRIEFLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT, HIGH TUESDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITHIN SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW
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