318
FXUS61 KRLX 170542
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1242 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. DRY TUESDAY, MORE ACTIVE BY MIDWEEK WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CLOSING OUT THE WEEK. VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP COLD FRONT POSITIONED
FROM NEAR TOLEDO, OH SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOUISVILLE, KY, AND VERY
CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE GOES-16 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB. THE
FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, FINALLY CROSSING
THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE TUESDAY MORNING. ISO LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, CURRENTLY 35-40KTS AT 3KFT PER KRLX VAD.
IN ADDITION, THIS LLJ (MEAN LAYER FLOW ~ SOUTHWEST) IS
RESULTING IN NOTED WAA ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS A RESULT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF, MAXIMIZED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LAND FORCED
ASCENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BY AND LARGE REMAIN
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN GUSTS AT BECKLEY AND SNOWSHOE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING, DID
ADD A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE HWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LINE STRETCHED FROM GREENUP COUNTY DOWN TO
WYOMING COUNTY, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND BEHIND THIS IT IS
MOSTLY CLEAR, SO THE LATEST POP FORECAST DOES REFLECT THAT
GENERAL CLEARING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SW'LY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL TURN
MORE W'LY BEHIND IT AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. SKIES ALSO
SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, SO SOME OF OUR
OHIO LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S BEFORE
SUNRISE. AREAS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER LIKELY STAY IN THE 40S, AS
THEY CLEAR TOO CLOSE TO SUNRISE, OR NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WON'T BE A VERY STRONG FRONT, AND WITH THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TOMORROW, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECOVER BACK CLOSE TO
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. THE LIKELY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SE OHIO
COUNTIES, AND PERHAPS PART OF THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AROUND
PARKERSBURG, WHICH COULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN
SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MOST OF US, ALONG WITH A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00" FOR MOST, WHICH
WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY WITH RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION FROM THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER DEEP 500-MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INTENSE COOL-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD WEATHER AND
LIGHT SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. DRY, BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD HOLD SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 12/17/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H L H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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