224
FXUS61 KRLX 170618
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES,
THEN DRY FOR REST OF THE DAY. MORE ACTIVE BY MIDWEEK WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CLOSING OUT THE WEEK. VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY,
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE THE COLD
FRONT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START PUSHING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MOST OF US, ALONG WITH A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00" FOR MOST, WHICH
WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY WITH RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION FROM THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 159 PM MONDAY...
ANOTHER DEEP 500-MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING AN INTENSE COOL-DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD WEATHER AND
LIGHT SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX. DRY, BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD HOLD SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 12/17/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H L H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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